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ADP Shares Drop 2.5% and Struggle at 200-Day Moving Average

The Parisian airport manager takes a breather after its rally last week. The stock is down in a declining Parisian market, following several sessions of gains that had brought it close to its long-term moving averages.


ADP Shares Drop 2.5% and Struggle at 200-Day Moving Average

A Consolidation Bringing ADP's Price to Its Short-Term Moving Averages

The stock is priced at €110.70, down 2.47% for the session, after closing the previous day at €113.50. This movement only partially erases the weekly gain, which still stands at over 8% for the week. The price remains slightly above its MM20 at €109.10 (+1.47%) and its MM50 at €108.73 (+1.81%), but stays below the MM200 at €113.39 (-2.37%), confirming that the reconquest of spring's peaks is not yet secured. The RSI at 59 remains in a neutral zone, without signs of exhaustion. The resistance at €115 identified in technical data marks the upper boundary of the current corridor, while the support at €102.30 outlines the bearish scenario.

Easing in Ormuz and Mixed European Air Traffic in the Background

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The decline follows the recent rally fueled by easing tensions in the Middle East, already discussed in the session of June 15. The memorandum of understanding signed on June 18 between Washington and Tehran, which plans for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has impacted Brent (-2.23% at $77.78 per barrel), a favorable factor for operators sensitive to the cost of kerosene. On the traffic front, ACI Europe data published on June 4 shows a slight decline in European passenger traffic by 0.7% in April, with Paris-CDG stable and Schiphol up by 2.7%. Financially, the group placed a €600 million bond on June 10, with a 9-year maturity and a coupon of 3.875%, aimed at general needs and refinancing. At the 2025 accounts release (March 13, 2026), the group targeted a recurring EBITDA of over €2,350 million for 2026, with traffic growth between 1.5% and 2.5%. Crossing the €113.39 level, the MM200, remains the pivot point to watch to validate the medium-term bullish momentum.



Sector Infrastructures · Transports Services de Transport


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Context

Period
  • Period: 2025
Key reported figures
  • Revenue: 6 704 millions d'euros
  • Revenue growth: 8,9 %
  • EBITDA: 2 322 millions d'euros
  • EBITDA margin: 34,6 %
  • Net income: 382 millions d'euros
  • 8 625 millions d'euros
  • Dividend per share: 3,00 €
  • Payout ratio: 60,0 %
Guidance from the release
  • L’année 2025 a été marquée par l’impulsion d’une nouvelle dynamique au sein du Groupe ADP et l’amorce d’une transformation structurelle de notre modèle.
  • Résultats annuels 2025 : chiffre d’affaires de 6 704 millions d’euros, EBITDA courant de 2 322 millions d’euros, RNPG de 382 millions d’euros; dette nette de 8 625 millions d’euros et dividende proposé de 3,00 euros par action. Le groupe atteint ses objectifs 2025 et prévoit une distribution de dividendes conforme à 60% du RNPG.
Outlook / guidance
  • Expected EBITDA: supérieur à 2 350 millions d'euros
  • Management commentary: Pour 2026, l’EBITDA courant est attendu au-delà de 2 350 millions d’euros; le ratio Dette Nette / EBITDA courant visé est inférieur ou égal à 3,7x; capex autour de 1 450 millions d’euros, dont environ 1 000 millions pour ADP SA; politique de distribution de dividendes à 60% du résultat net part du groupe avec un plancher de 3,00 euros par action; trafic attendu en croissance autour de 1,5% à 2,5% et CA par Pax Extime Paris supérieur à 32 euros.

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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