ADP Stock Drops 2% and Falls Below Technical Threshold Ahead of Key Results
On Wednesday, the airport operator's stock fell more than 2% in a generally declining Parisian market. This drop comes just days before the announcement of the first quarter revenue, scheduled for April 28, an event that is highly anticipated.
In mid-afternoon trading, ADP stock is exchanging hands at €109.30, down 2.15% from the previous close of €111.70. Over the last seven days, the stock has fallen by 3.45%, erasing some of the gains made over the past three months (+1.49%). The price is now below its 50-day moving average of €111.44, and significantly under its 200-day moving average of €114.40, indicating a gradual weakening of momentum. The CAC 40 is down 0.39% at 8,203 points, in an unfavorable environment for infrastructure-related stocks. Notably, sector peers show mixed performances: Vinci is up slightly by 0.21%, while Ferrovial has gained 0.10%. ADP's decline is thus more pronounced than that of its European counterparts.
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A few days ago, Jefferies lowered its price target on ADP from €129 to €126, while maintaining a 'hold' recommendation. This new target still represents an approximate 15% upside potential from the current price, indicating a significant discrepancy between market valuation and the analyst's estimation. The upcoming financial calendar is crucial for the next few sessions. The publication of the first quarter 2026 revenue is expected on April 28, followed by the general assembly scheduled for May 21. These events will provide concrete insights into the evolution of airport traffic and the group's ability to maintain its revenue trajectory. Over the past year, the stock has maintained a positive performance of 4.89%, but the recent trend suggests caution is warranted pending these publications.
SectorInfrastructures · Transports›Services de Transport
Context
Period
Period: 2025
Key reported figures
Revenue: 6 704 millions d'euros
Revenue growth: 8,9 %
EBITDA: 2 322 millions d'euros
EBITDA margin: 34,6 %
Net income: 382 millions d'euros
Net debt: 8 625 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,00 €
Payout ratio: 60,0 %
Guidance from the release
L’année 2025 a été marquée par l’impulsion d’une nouvelle dynamique au sein du Groupe ADP et l’amorce d’une transformation structurelle de notre modèle.
Résultats annuels 2025 : chiffre d’affaires de 6 704 millions d’euros, EBITDA courant de 2 322 millions d’euros, RNPG de 382 millions d’euros; dette nette de 8 625 millions d’euros et dividende proposé de 3,00 euros par action. Le groupe atteint ses objectifs 2025 et prévoit une distribution de dividendes conforme à 60% du RNPG.
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: supérieur à 2 350 millions d'euros
Management commentary: Pour 2026, l’EBITDA courant est attendu au-delà de 2 350 millions d’euros; le ratio Dette Nette / EBITDA courant visé est inférieur ou égal à 3,7x; capex autour de 1 450 millions d’euros, dont environ 1 000 millions pour ADP SA; politique de distribution de dividendes à 60% du résultat net part du groupe avec un plancher de 3,00 euros par action; trafic attendu en croissance autour de 1,5% à 2,5% et CA par Pax Extime Paris supérieur à 32 euros.
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