Air France-KLM Shares Plunge Nearly 20% in Three Months Following Deutsche Bank Downgrade
Air France-KLM saw a significant decline this Thursday morning, dropping 3.86% to 9.326 euros in a Parisian market that was also down. The stock continues a downward trend, losing nearly 8% over the past seven days and more than 20% over three months. This movement comes as Deutsche Bank has lowered its price target on the airline.
On March 19, the German bank lowered its price target for Air France-KLM from 11.00 euros to 9.00 euros, while maintaining its 'hold' recommendation. This new target, which is 3.5% below the current price, reflects a significant revision of the outlook assigned to the Franco-Dutch group. The magnitude of the adjustment—a 18% reduction in the target—illustrates a marked recalibration of the valuation by the institution. This publication comes in an unfavorable context for the airline sector in Paris: Airbus is down 2.81% and Safran by 2.05% during the session. The CAC 40 itself is down 1.64% at around 7,838 points, while the SBF 120 loses 1.65%.
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From a technical standpoint, the Air France-KLM stock is now well below its main moving averages. The price of 9.326 euros is more than 16% below the 50-day moving average (11.17 euros) and the 200-day moving average (11.28 euros), indicating a bearish trend established over several time horizons. The RSI, an indicator measuring overbought or oversold conditions, is at 15—a particularly low level that signals a rarely reached zone of strong overselling. Moreover, the price is approaching the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands, set at 8.23 euros, after already breaking through the support level identified at 9.57 euros. This breach constitutes an additional signal of vulnerability for the stock. The next financial meeting for the group is scheduled for April 30 with the publication of the first quarter 2026 results, which could provide new elements for operators to assess.
“Au troisième trimestre, Air France-KLM a une nouvelle fois démontré sa résilience dans un environnement toujours exigeant.”
Chiffre d’affaires en croissance, marge opérationnelle stable au T3 à 13,1 %, amélioration de la génération de trésorerie sur neuf mois, baisse du prix du carburant et renouvellement de flotte soutenant la performance.
Risks mentioned
Impact négatif de la taxe de solidarité sur les billets d’avion (TSBA) sur la recette unitaire
Hausse des redevances aéroportuaires à Schiphol (impact significatif sur coûts et recettes)
Pression sur les yields en cabine Economy et concurrence accrue pour Transavia aux Pays-Bas
Retards et opérations de maintenance affectant la capacité cargo
Opportunities identified
Renouvellement de la flotte (augmentation de la part d'appareils nouvelle génération) améliorant l'efficience carburant
Bonne performance des cabines Premium soutenant les yields réseau passage
Croissance de l'activité Maintenance et carnet de commandes MRO élevé (10,4 Mds $)
Acquisition d'une participation dans WestJet renforçant la présence nord-américaine et les partenariats commerciaux
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
