Carmila Shares Drop 6.75% Over the Week Despite Confirmation of Targets
The commercial real estate company Carmila ended Wednesday's session down 4.98%, at 16.02 euros. Over the past seven days, the stock has declined by 6.75%, contrasting with the solidity of its fundamentals and the stability of the broader market. Trading remains limited, with a modest capital turnover of 0.27%, while the CAC 40 remains almost stable at 8,200.88 points (-0.19%).
Significant Daily Loss
The stock closed the day significantly lower, losing nearly 85 cents compared to Tuesday's close (16.86€). This correction occurs in a context where the annual performance of the stock shows a decline of 10.1%, a performance significantly lower than that of the leading Paris index, which has increased by 8.52% over the same period. For comparison, Carmila has only increased by 1.37% since the beginning of the year, while the last three months have seen a decline of 7.18%. The low volume indicates limited market rotation this Wednesday, with a very moderate exchange rate. The stock is now oscillating near its near technical support, set at 16.64 euros, while its short-term resistance is positioned at 17.56 euros. This short-term dynamic occurs in a market that remains generally stable, with the CAC 40 showing almost no response to today's announcements.
Recent Correction Following Quarterly Results
The current correction comes a few days after the publication of the third-quarter results on October 24. The company recorded a 9.7% growth in its net rents over the first nine months of 2025, incorporating a sustained organic growth of 3.2%, of which 2.5% is indexing, and a net contribution from Galimmo of 6.5%. The rental activity remains dynamic with 646 leases signed and a stable financial occupancy rate at 95.3% in pro-forma data. The average rent reversion is 2.6%, above the indexing, signaling sustained tenant demand. Carmila has confirmed its target of a recurring earnings per share of 1.79 euros for 2025, corresponding to a growth of 7%. The EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 130 basis points to reach 79%. The consensus of analysts, updated on October 28, sets a target price of 20.04 euros within three months, implying a potential of 18.88%. The expected yield for 2025 is set at 7.87%, while the PER valuation ratio stands at 9.51 times, reflecting a moderate valuation of the sector.
Technical Perspective
From a technical standpoint, Carmila is now deviating from its main moving averages, partly explaining the downward pressure in recent days. The 50-day moving average is set at 17.16 euros, while the 200-day average peaks at 17.41 euros, leaving the stock distant from these structural supports. The 14-period RSI shows a neutral value of 52, while the MACD histogram, slightly negative at -0.01, suggests a hesitant dynamic. The Bollinger Bands frame the stock between 16.53 euros (lower bound) and 17.55 euros (upper bound), with the price currently approaching the lower threshold of this range.
