Carrefour Stock: Over 4% Decline Following the Announcement of 2025 Annual Results
Carrefour's stock experienced a significant drop this Wednesday, February 18, falling to 14.70 euros, a decrease of 4.55% from the previous day. This correction occurred the day after the announcement of the 2025 annual results, alongside several strategic announcements made by the retail group.
The group led by Alexandre Bompard published its 2025 annual accounts yesterday, reporting a revenue growth of 2.8% on a like-for-like basis. The business momentum was primarily driven by operations in France and Spain, amid the integration of Cora and Match brands and a reorganization of the distributor's geographic portfolio. Despite this positive trajectory, Carrefour's stock significantly lost ground, as the market seems to have already factored in this operational improvement over the past months and may still be waiting for the rollout of the group's new strategy. On the same day, the analysis firm AlphaValue raised its price target from 15.30 to 16.10 euros, while maintaining a 'reduce' recommendation. This new target is approximately 9.6% above the current price, indicating a moderate revaluation potential according to this firm.
Strategic Partnership with Vusion Announced
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In conjunction with its results, Carrefour revealed a strategic agreement with Vusion focusing on the digitization of all its hypermarkets and supermarkets in France by 2030. This technological deployment, part of the 'Carrefour 2030' roadmap, represents one of the largest alliances of its kind in the European retail market. The announcement further strengthens the group's position on modernizing its physical network. Technically, the day's decline occurred as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently showed a level of 85, indicating an overbought zone and signaling a risk of short-term correction following the recent rise. However, the price is still above its 50-day moving average, located at 14.24 euros, which could serve as a support point if the downward trend continues. The nearest resistance level is at 15.66 euros, a level the stock has failed to surpass during its recent peak.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
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