Edenred Shares Drop to €20.86 but Retain Nearly 18% Over Three Months
Edenred shares fell by 1.93% to €20.86 in mid-morning trading in a declining Paris market. The SBF 120 is down by 0.60% during the session, and the CAC 40 is down by 0.63%, amid renewed tensions in the Middle East. Today's decline follows several weeks of rebound, with the stock still holding a gain of nearly 18% over three months.
A Decline That Brings the Stock Close to Its Moving Averages
At €20.86, Edenred remains slightly above its 20-day moving average (€20.69) and its 200-day average (€20.48), which it crossed at the end of April after several months below it. The RSI at 64 indicates a still tense dynamic without reaching the overbought zone. Bollinger Bands place the price mid-band, at 54%, between a lower bound of €18.78 and an upper bound of €22.60. The nearest resistance identified by the indicators is at €21.68, just above the current price. The stock ranks 111th out of 120 values in the SBF 120 during the session, among the largest declines of the index today. The movement remains contained compared to its recent trajectory: the stock had crossed its 200-day average at the end of April after breaking it upwards on April 23, following the publication of first-quarter revenue.
Moderate Valuation and Decreasing Short Positions
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Based on the consensus of 14 analysts updated on May 8, Edenred is trading at about 9.9 times the expected earnings for the current fiscal year and 8.7 times those of the following year, compared to an average of 18.4 times for the Industrials sector. The expected EPS growth from one year to the next is set at 13.6%. Regarding short positions, the latest AMF/ESMA declaration on May 7 reported a cumulative net short position of 9.14% of the capital, declared by 9 funds including Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (1.81%), Two Sigma Investments (1.43%), and Marshall Wace (1.19%). The level has decreased by 1.49 percentage points over thirty days, after 10.63% a month earlier. The next key date is the publication of the first half of 2026 revenue, scheduled for July 23.
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Context
Period
Period: 3T 2025
Guidance from the release
Edenred confirme la solidité de son modèle économique et réaffirme ses objectifs 2025, visant au moins 10 % de croissance organique de l’EBITDA et un taux de conversion Free-cash-flow/EBITDA supérieur à 70 %.
Croissance organique accélérée au T3 2025 (+8,2 % chiffre d’affaires opérationnel) portée par toutes les lignes de métier, forte dynamique en Amérique latine et amélioration en Europe; Mobilité en croissance à deux chiffres; Solutions complémentaires en repli. Effets de change négatifs et impact réglementaire en Italie (plafonnement commissions) anticipés.
Risks mentioned
Impact négatif attendu de 60 millions d’euros d’EBITDA lié au plafonnement des commissions marchands en Italie
Effets de change défavorables (dépréciation des devises en Amérique latine, notamment réal brésilien et peso mexicain)
Environnement macroéconomique incertain pouvant affecter la consommation et la demande
Opportunities identified
Hausses des valeurs faciales des titres-restaurant dans plusieurs pays (ex. Belgique +25% à partir du 1er janvier 2026) soutenant la croissance organique
Partenariats stratégiques (Visa, Esso, grand distributeur de carburant) renforçant l’offre et l’accès au marché
Déploiement des solutions Beyond Food et Beyond Fuel et conquête du segment PME encore sous-pénétré
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