Thales Shares Drop 2.5% and Fall Below 200-Day Moving Average
Thales shares experienced a significant decline this Wednesday, dropping 2.51% to 244.20 euros mid-session, amidst a widespread correction in European markets. The CAC 40 is down by 0.53% and the DAX has decreased by 1.58% during the session. The defense and electronics group has now seen a decrease of 2.16% over the past seven days.
With a drop to 244.20 euros, Thales has fallen below its 200-day moving average, currently at 245.41 euros. This threshold, closely watched by traders to assess the long-term trend of a stock, had not been breached for several weeks. The price is also significantly below its 50-day moving average (253.41 euros), confirming a weakening of the bullish momentum observed in the last quarter, during which the stock had gained more than 7%. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, in a neutral zone but trending downwards, suggesting a waning of buying pressure without yet indicating overselling. The next support level identified is at 236.40 euros: should the decline continue, this level would represent a technical area to watch.
Decline Amidst Geopolitical Uncertainty
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The decline in the stock occurs in an environment marked by high geopolitical uncertainty. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to impact market visibility, as highlighted by ECB President Christine Lagarde, who compared the current energy shock to that caused by the Ukraine war in 2022, although she noted that the magnitudes differ. The monetary authority, whose next monetary policy decision is scheduled for March 19, has reiterated its commitment to keeping inflation under control, with the rate currently at 1.9% in the eurozone. The VIX, a volatility barometer on the markets, was observed at 29.49, indicating high tension. In this context, Thales, with a beta of 0.18 typically reflecting a low correlation with market fluctuations, is not immune to the downward trend. The next key date in the company's financial calendar is the general assembly, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
Net debt: -1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
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