Thales Shares Drop 3% and Mark the Lowest Point on the CAC 40
The defense electronics group experiences a significant downturn in the Paris market, moving against a flat Parisian index. The drop follows a downgrade in target price by a major Swiss broker, as the stock approaches a technical support level that has been monitored for several sessions.
A Drop that Isolates Thales at the End of the CAC 40 Following UBS's Review
Thales shares fall 3% to €226.70, marking the lowest point on the CAC 40 while the index remains stable at 8,264.31 points. This movement follows the reduction of the target price by UBS, from €390 to €330, while still maintaining a buy rating. The revised target still offers a theoretical potential of nearly 46% compared to the current price. BofA Securities, on the other hand, set a target of €293 the day before, while keeping its opinion under review. Today's decline more than erases the previous weekly rebound and brings the three-month loss to over 16%, with the value still affected by the gradual fading of the geopolitical premium granted to defense stocks since the start of the summer.
A Return to the Support Level at €219.40 Under Bearish Moving Averages
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The decline brings the stock back to its technical support at €219.40, which was previously breached at the end of June during the last wave of selling, before a rebound that had pushed the price up to €239.60. The price is now trading below its three moving averages, with a gap of -2.17% from the MM20 (€231.73) and -7.45% from the MM200 (€244.94), a configuration that indicates a deterioration in the medium-term trend. The RSI at 43 remains in a neutral zone, without any excess signal, leaving the margin entirely dependent on the support holding. As a reminder, the exceptional charge of €450 million related to the termination of the F126 frigate program was published on July 3, accompanied by a raise in annual targets. The next milestone to watch is the stock's behavior around €219.40.
Net income: 2 005 millions d'euros (Résultat Net Ajusté, part du Groupe)
Free cash flow: 2 577 millions d'euros
-1 618 millions d'euros
Dividend per share: 3,90 €
Payout ratio: 40 %
Guidance from the release
2025 a été une très bonne année avec des commandes records et une croissance du chiffre d’affaires, démontrant l’excellence opérationnelle du Groupe.
Communiqué indiquant des commandes records, un chiffre d’affaires en hausse et une rentabilité améliorée en 2025, avec des perspectives 2026 positives et un dividende soutenu.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d'euros en 2026
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé publiquement
Expected net income: Non précisé publiquement
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Thales vise un book-to-bill supérieur à 1 et une croissance organique du chiffre d’affaires entre 6 % et 7 %, correspondant à un chiffre d’affaires entre 23,3 et 23,6 milliards d’euros, et une marge d’EBIT Ajusté entre 12,6 % et 12,8 %; le taux de conversion en cash devrait se situer entre 95 % et 100 %.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
