TotalEnergies Shares Drop 6.33% Following US-Iran Ceasefire
TotalEnergies shares fell by 6.33% this Wednesday morning to €74.24, following a sharp decline in crude oil prices triggered by the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. While the CAC 40 index is up by 4.28% during the session, supported by other sectors, the oil sector stands out as a notable exception to the downturn.
Impact of the Ceasefire Announcement on Oil Prices
The announcement on April 8 of a ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran led to a 15% drop in Brent crude prices, which fell to $92.99 per barrel. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's oil production passes, naturally reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been supporting prices since the beginning of the conflict. Brent had surged more than 40% in a few weeks following Israeli-American strikes on Iranian territory, before plummeting sharply this morning. Talks are set to begin on Friday in Pakistan, designated as the mediator, to solidify this agreement.
The downturn is widespread in the sector: Shell PLC also dropped 6.42% in the same session. Despite this downturn, TotalEnergies' shares still show a performance of 38.74% over three months and 47.62% over a year, driven by the earlier rise in crude prices linked to the conflict. The first quarter 2026 results, expected on April 29, will be a key moment to assess the impact of this period of volatility on the company's financials.
Technical Analysis of the Share Price
From a technical standpoint, today's decline brings the share price to €74.24, below its 20-day moving average of €75.70, but still well above the 50-day moving average at €68.74. This crossover indicates that the underlying trend remains upward despite today's correction: the price is still 8% above the MM50, indicating that the bullish movement initiated in recent months is not questioned at this stage.
The RSI, at 66, remains in the neutral-high zone, with no signs of overbought or oversold conditions. According to Bollinger Bands, the stock is positioned in the middle part, at 41% of the band, that is, between the lower bound (€67.79) and the upper bound (€83.61). The most relevant support is at €66.14, a level that would represent an additional threshold of caution in case of an intensification of the decline in the coming sessions.
