Brent Above $106: Markets Watchful Over Strait of Hormuz

A Rebound Directly Linked to the Strait of Hormuz Blockage

The daily movement of Brent reflects the lack of tangible de-escalation between Washington and Tehran. The indirect negotiations conducted via the Pakistani mediator have not succeeded in sustainably consolidating the ceasefire, with Donald Trump now describing it as extremely fragile, while Tehran claims to be ready to retaliate in case of further aggression.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical point. Donald Trump is considering launching an operation to allow ships blocked in the Gulf to pass through the strategic passage, through which a major portion of the world's oil transits. At the same time, France and the United Kingdom are scheduled to co-chair a meeting with countries willing to contribute to a security mission.

This issue has become a direct determinant of the price per barrel, as evidenced by the recent sequence.

U.S. Sanctions and the Lebanese Front Maintain Pressure

Washington has announced new sanctions targeting individuals and entities accused of facilitating the sale of Iranian oil to China. Among the targets are entities linked to the Revolutionary Guards, in Dubai and Hong Kong. This decision comes ahead of a scheduled meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which enhances its diplomatic significance. For the market, these measures add a tension factor to the already constrained Iranian supply.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese front remains active despite the theoretical truce in effect since April 17. Lebanon has requested U.S. assistance to pressure Israel following a bombing in Kfar Dounine that resulted in six deaths and seven injuries, according to the official Lebanese agency. Israeli raids continue, Hezbollah claims attacks, and this secondary axis contributes to maintaining regional instability.

A Risk Extending to the Gulf's Energy Hubs

According to an investigation by the Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates allegedly conducted direct strikes against Iranian oil facilities on Lavan Island in early April. This information is based on anonymous sources and has not been verified. If confirmed, it would indicate regional involvement beyond the operations claimed by the United States and Israel.

The Emirates have also reportedly been targeted by numerous Iranian attacks since the beginning of the conflict, against energy infrastructure, American bases, and civilian areas. This situation undermines the Gulf's image of stability, particularly that of Dubai, a major business and investment hub.

For the markets, the risk extends beyond Iran and Israel; it now directly impacts regional economic and energy hubs. This context can bolster energy-related stocks while weighing on sectors sensitive to fuel costs, transportation, and inflation expectations. The effect is already visible on Chinese producer prices, which have risen by 2.8% year over year.