Macro Agenda for the Week: US Jobs, UK Rates, PMI, and International Trade on the Agenda

Tuesday, May 6 — ISM Services and JOLTS: Gauging the Pulse of the U.S. Economy

Two major indicators are released simultaneously on Tuesday at 4:00 PM. The ISM Services PMI measures activity in the U.S. services sector based on surveys of purchasing managers: a score above 50 indicates expansion, while below signals contraction. Analysts' consensus is expecting 53.8 after 54.0 in March, representing a slight decrease but still comfortably in expansion territory. At the same time, the JOLTS report tracks the number of job openings in the U.S. economy—a gauge of labor market tension closely monitored by the Fed. The consensus aims for 6.87 million job openings, a very slight drop from the 6.88 million in the previous month. Figures in line with expectations would confirm an economy that is gradually slowing without stalling, a so-called soft landing scenario favorable to risk assets. Conversely, an upward surprise in both indicators would bolster the Fed's argument to keep interest rates elevated longer, which would weigh on stock valuations. The U.S. trade balance for March, published by the BEA the same morning, will complete the picture by providing an initial reading of import and export flows amid ongoing tariff tensions.

Tuesday and Wednesday — Eurozone: Wages, Industrial Prices, and French Production

The ECB will release its ECB Wage Tracker on Wednesday, a statistical tool that monitors near real-time developments in negotiated wages in the euro area—a crucial data point for assessing whether internal inflationary pressures persist. On the same day, the central bank will also publish its bank interest rate statistics (MIR dataset), which reflect how its rate decisions are practically transmitted to loans granted to households and businesses. Eurostat will publish on Wednesday the producer prices on the domestic market of the euro area: this index measures the evolution of manufacturers' selling prices before they reach the final consumer, serving as a leading indicator of upcoming inflation. In France, INSEE will unveil March’s industrial production on Wednesday, along with three detailed studies on wages in the three sectors of the public service in 2024. This data will fuel the debate on wage dynamics in Europe, a topic that ECB President Christine Lagarde, scheduled to speak Tuesday morning, will undoubtedly address.

Thursday, May 7 — Bank of England Decides on Rates

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will announce its decision at 12:00 PM on Thursday. The BoE sets the Bank Rate, its key interest rate, which determines the cost of money in the United Kingdom and directly influences mortgage rates, business loans, and the British pound. No consensus forecast is available in the official agenda, reflecting genuine uncertainty surrounding this meeting. UK bond markets and the pound are expected to react immediately to the announcement and, even more so, to the accompanying statement that will guide expectations for upcoming meetings. On the same day, Eurostat will release eurozone retail trade data for March—a gauge of the strength of European household consumption—while the weekly US jobless claims (expected at 203,000 compared to 189,000 the previous week) will provide an intermediate data point ahead of Friday's major employment report.

Friday, May 8 — US Job Report, Highlight of the Week

Friday is the focus of global trading floors' attention. At 2:30 PM, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the employment trifecta: Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. Economists anticipate only 60,000 new jobs in April, compared to 178,000 in March—a significant slowdown that, if confirmed, would be a tangible sign that the U.S. labor market is beginning to feel the effects of prolonged monetary tightening. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.3%, while hourly wages are anticipated to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, slightly faster than in March. This set of data is the main input for the Fed in calibrating its interest rate policy: a pronounced weakness in job creation would reopen the debate on an early rate cut, which would support equity markets. At 4:00 PM, the University of Michigan will release its preliminary consumer confidence index (expected at 49.3 versus 47.6 previously) and inflation expectations—two barometers of American consumer sentiment closely monitored by the Fed. In the evening, Fed Board member Christopher Waller will speak and may comment on the employment figures in real-time, potentially offering insight into the direction of the committee in upcoming meetings.