Carrefour stock falls below its 20-day moving average but gains 3.9% over one month
The French retailer loses ground on Tuesday, contrary to a CAC 40 that is rising slightly. The decline occurs as the security had just posted one of the sharpest gains on the index the previous day, confirming momentum that remains globally positive over the month.
A limited decline that brings the price below its 20-day moving average, near the monthly support level
Carrefour is down 1.52% in trading at €16.24, after closing at €16.49 the previous day. The security thus falls below its 20-day moving average (€16.38), with a difference of -0.85%, while remaining above its 50-day moving average at €16.11 (+0.81%) and its 200-day moving average at €15.76 (+3.05%). The technical setup has therefore slightly deteriorated during the session, with the price falling below this short-term horizon while the RSI at 54 remains in neutral territory, with no overbought signals.
The support identified at €15.60 still offers a comfortable cushion relative to current levels, which puts the scope of today's decline into perspective. Over one month, the security remains up 3.9%, illustrating that the session's decline is part of a consolidation following a bullish phase, rather than a reversal of the underlying trend.
Well-oriented fundamentals for 2026, despite commercial margins under pressure
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Upon the publication of first-half 2026 results (July 23, 2026), Carrefour confirmed its annual targets: current operating income growth, operating margin up more than 25 basis points compared to 2025, and free cash flow in growth. The group had then achieved €490 million of the €1 billion cost savings target for the year, and finalized the sale of Carrefour Romania for approximately €500 million, marking a refocus on France, Spain and Brazil. Among the points of attention were a commercial margin down 28 basis points to 19.1% of sales, due to price investments.
On the valuation front, the consensus of analysts tracked values the security at approximately 9.4 times expected earnings for the current fiscal year and 8.7 times those of the following fiscal year, with earnings per share growth projected at +8.2% year-over-year. Over one year, the stock shows a gain of 29.16%, placing the security among the CAC 40 values that have performed best over this period.
Objectifs 2026 confirmes : croissance du ROC, marge operationnelle en hausse de plus de 25 pbs vs 2025, cash-flow libre net en croissance vs 2025 (1 565 M€), resultat net ajuste par action en croissance dans le haut de la fourchette a un chiffre. Plan d'economies de 1 Md€ confirme (490 M€ realises au S1).
Risks mentioned
Résultat non courant dégradé à -165 M€ contre -39 M€ au S1 2025
ROC des Autres pays à -34 M€, fortement pénalisé par l'Argentine
Marge commerciale en baisse de -28 pbs à 19,1 % du CA lié aux investissements prix
Opportunities identified
490 M€ d'économies de coûts réalisées au S1, en ligne avec l'objectif de 1 Md€ pour 2026
Objectif confirmé de 130 M€ de synergies Cora & Match à horizon 2027
Cession de Carrefour Roumanie finalisée pour environ 500 M€ et recentrage sur 3 pays cœur
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
