Ipsos stock among the steepest declines on the SBF 120 following its Q3 results
The market research group falls sharply during trading as it unveils its third-quarter accounts. The publication comes with a revision of its organic growth target for the fiscal year, in a Paris market that is also trending downward.
Organic growth target reduced to 1.2-1.5% for 2026
Ipsos shares are down 3.75% to €35.98 during trading, among the steepest declines on the SBF 120, while the index is down 0.73%. Third-quarter organic growth comes in at 2.0%, compared to 0.8% in the first half and -1.4% in the first quarter. The group has nevertheless lowered its annual target, now ranging between 1.2% and 1.5%, whereas it had aimed for "around 2%" at half-year results. On a reported basis, quarterly revenue is flat at €636.2 million, versus €635.9 million a year earlier.
The recovery remains uneven across regions. Europe, the Middle East and Africa as well as Asia-Pacific are accelerating, while the Americas are declining by 1.2% on an organic basis for the quarter. The group also cites the impact of the Middle East conflict on the region's activity.
A stock that is hitting its moving averages, after a 3.75% decline
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On the price front, the stock has just hit its 20-day and 200-day moving averages, both at €35.98, and remains below its 50-day moving average (€36.65), at 1.83% distance. This decline brings the stock towards its support level at €34.56, a level already approached at the end of September. The RSI at 47 remains neutral.
Over one year, the stock is down 1.26%. On the analyst side, CIC Market Solutions maintains its buy recommendation with a price target of €50, approximately 39% above the current price. According to the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock trades at 6.9 times current fiscal year earnings.
Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 % (au S1 : « autour de 2 % »)
Risks mentioned
Middle East conflict has adversely affected activity in the region, a historically strong growth zone
Americas segment remains below expectations with -1.2% organic growth in Q3 due to delays in Horizons strategic plan execution
Persistent uncertainty in macroeconomic and geopolitical environment limiting growth visibility
Opportunities identified
Strong recovery in Citizens business segment with 4.7% organic growth over 9 months and 8.6% in Q3, driven by multi-year contract wins
Acceleration in Asia-Pacific region reaching 2.8% organic growth over 9 months and 4.3% in Q3, supported by momentum in China and India
Rapid growth in Ipsos.Digital DIY platform with 14% organic growth, expanding AI capabilities and synthetic respondents
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 2 559 millions d'euros
Management commentary: PERSPECTIVES : « Au regard de la performance réalisée au cours des neuf premiers mois de l’année et du niveau du carnet de commandes à fin septembre, le Groupe révise son objectif de croissance organique pour l’exercice 2026, désormais compris entre 1,2 % et 1,5 %, contre 0,6 % en 2025. Cette perspective tient également compte d’un environnement macroéconomique et géopolitique toujours incertain, notamment marqué par les répercussions du conflit au Moyen-Orient sur les activités du Groupe dans la région. Le Groupe confirme son objectif d’un taux de marge opérationnelle au niveau de 2025, reflétant sa capacité à maintenir une discipline financière rigoureuse tout en poursuivant les investissements nécessaires à l’exécution de son plan stratégique Horizons. »
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
