Valneva's Stock Drops 3% and Returns to a Key Support Level
The Lyon-based biotech specializing in vaccines is among the biggest losers on the SBF 120 at midday, even as the index moves higher. The stock is plunging back to a technical threshold previously tested in late June, just weeks after an annual guidance revision.
A Decline Bringing the Stock Back to Its €2.21 Support
Valneva's stock fell by 3.07% to €2.239, down from €2.31 the previous day, ranking among the steepest declines on the SBF 120 while the index itself rose by 0.44%. The stock thus returns to its support level at €2.21, which was previously breached on June 25 during a session that saw a 3.57% drop, before rebounding by 4.5% last Friday, which brought it close to its 20-day moving average (MM20). The slide takes over again: the price remains below the MM20 (€2.37, a gap of -5.53%) and the 50-day moving average (MM50) at €2.44 (a gap of -8.24%), while the 200-day moving average (MM200) at €3.64 remains out of reach (-38.49%).
The RSI at 43 does not indicate any significant overselling and keeps the stock in a neutral zone, consistent with a movement back to support rather than a heavy drop. Over three months, the stock has still declined by more than 17%.
A Tightened 2026 Guidance Continues to Weigh on the Stock's Trajectory
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During the first quarter 2026 announcement on May 13, Valneva adjusted its annual forecasts with expected revenue ranging from 135 to 150 million euros, citing a decline in third-party product sales and unfavorable trends in travel vaccine adoption. The company then indicated that it would focus its resources on key strategic projects. This revision continues to weigh on the medium-term outlook, as evidenced by the -9.72% year-over-year and the -38% gap persisting with the 200-day moving average. The holding of the support at €2.21 remains the most concrete observation point during this session: its breach would reopen the door to recent lows, while the MM20 at €2.37 frames the upper boundary of the current trading zone of the stock.
SectorSanté · Vaccins et laboratoires de recherche›Industrie Pharmaceutique
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Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
