Valneva's Stock Rebounds by 2.5%, Marking One of the Strongest Gains in the SBF 120
The Lyon-based biotech specializing in vaccines marks one of the sharpest rebounds in the index this Monday, in an overall well-oriented Parisian market. The stock is recovering after several challenging weeks, while still trading below all its moving averages.
A Session Rebound That Places the Stock Among the Strongest Gains in the SBF 120
Valneva's stock gains 2.62% at €2.236 in session, placing it among the strongest gains in the SBF 120, while the broader index only advances by 0.14%. The rebound comes after a difficult phase: the stock is still down 4.3% over the past week and nearly 16.4% over three months. The CAC 40, on the other hand, gains 0.13% at 8,349.67 points, in a market environment marked by Brent crude rising beyond $79 following a new escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. The movement of the day occurs a few sessions after a low point reached on July 7, when the stock came back to the support at €2.21, tested for the first time at the end of June. This threshold is holding for now. The biotech remains far from its highs: the stock loses more than 38% compared to its 200-day moving average at €3.64.
Stock Still Below Its Three Moving Averages Despite Today's Recovery
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The technical setup remains unfavorable. The price at €2.236 is below the MM20 (€2.37, a gap of -5.65%) and the MM50 (€2.44, a gap of -8.36%). Today's rebound brings the stock close to its short-term moving average, without yet crossing it. The RSI at 43 remains in a neutral zone, indicating a lack of dominant buying or selling pressure at this stage. On the fundamentals, the company adjusted its trajectory during the first quarter 2026 announcement on May 13, targeting an annual revenue between €135 million and €150 million. This revision, combined with the decline in third-party product sales mentioned in the group's risks, has weighed on the biotech's stock trajectory for several months. The support at €2.21 remains the short-term technical reference level, with the next resistance at €2.67.
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Context
Period
Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
