Valneva Shares Bounce Back 2% After a 39% Plunge Over Three Months
The stock of the Nantes-based vaccine specialist rose nearly 2% this Wednesday to 2.70 euros, after hitting a low in recent weeks. This rebound occurs in a context of significant quarterly deterioration, with the stock having lost over 39% in three months.
In today's session, Valneva is trading at 2.70 euros, up 1.97% compared to yesterday's close of 2.64 euros. Over the week, the stock has gained 4.7%, contrasting with the downward trajectory of the past months: the decline reaches 39.17% over three months and 15.54% over a year. Technically, the RSI is at 29, a level generally associated with an oversold zone, which may explain the rebound observed this morning. The price is also significantly below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, located at 3.97 euros and 3.89 euros respectively, confirming the underlying bearish trend. The nearest support is at 2.58 euros, a threshold around which the stock was still hovering recently. In the European pharmaceutical sector, Sanofi is up 1.05% in the session, while UCB remains stable. The CAC 40 is down 0.63% at 8275 points, thus not providing support to the Paris market this morning.
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The upcoming weeks are crucial for the Franco-Austrian biotech. The publication of the first quarter 2026 results, scheduled for May 7, will be a key moment to assess the commercial momentum of its vaccines, particularly against chikungunya and Japanese encephalitis. The general assembly, scheduled for June 1, will complete this sequence. With a significantly reduced capitalization after months of decline, the stock is trading in the lower part of its Bollinger Bands, at about 35% of the total amplitude between the lower bound (1.51 euros) and the upper bound (4.92 euros). This position reflects persistent selling pressure on the stock, despite the rebound observed at the beginning of the week. On the other side of the Atlantic, major pharmaceutical companies showed contrasting trajectories at the close of the day: AbbVie was up 1.84% and Johnson & Johnson 0.90%, while Eli Lilly was down 0.76%.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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