Valneva Stock Attempts a Rebound After Losing 36% in Three Months
After losing over a third of its value in three months, the stock of the Nantes-based vaccine specialist is catching its breath this Friday. The stock is trading at €2.696 in mid-morning, up 2.51% from the previous day's close, in a slightly positive Parisian market, with the CAC 40 hovering around 8,267 points during the session.
Valneva's stock is trading at €2.696, significantly below all its moving averages: MM20 at €3.51, MM50 at €4.06, and MM200 at €3.88. This gap confirms the downward trend that has been ongoing for several weeks, with the stock having lost 36.65% over three months. The RSI, at 28, signals an oversold zone, which partly explains the rebound observed this morning. Additionally, the price is in the lower part of the Bollinger Bands, at only 29% of the range between the lower bound (€1.61) and the upper bound (€5.40), confirming the selling pressure accumulated in recent weeks. The technical support identified at €2.58 held during the last sessions, providing a floor from which the stock is attempting to stabilize. The major resistance lies at €4.93, a level far removed from the current price. Over a week, the variation remains almost neutral (-0.52%), while the annual performance shows a decline of 4.4%.
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The group's next financial appointment is scheduled for May 7 with the publication of the first quarter 2026 results, followed by the annual general meeting on June 1. These milestones will be crucial in assessing the company's commercial and financial trajectory, particularly regarding its main vaccine programs. The stock is characterized by a negative beta of -0.08, indicating an almost total decoupling from market trends. Monthly volatility remains high at 22.85%, reflecting the range of price movements on the stock. In the health sector, comparables show a slightly positive session: Sanofi is up 0.41% and UCB advances by 0.96%, although these changes are not sufficient to explain the day's movement on Valneva.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
