Aperam Expects Adjusted EBITDA Below 74 Million Euros in Q4
Steel manufacturer Aperam has confirmed its forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting an adjusted EBITDA below the 74 million euros recorded in the third quarter, according to a statement released on Monday.
Market Conditions and EBITDA Expectations
According to the group, the Brazilian market experienced lower seasonal demand and price pressure from non-stainless steel imports in the fourth quarter. In Europe, market conditions remained challenging. The consensus compiled by Aperam for the fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA currently stands at an average of 68 million euros. The company notes that the order book in Europe shows no signs of recovery so far, with demand increases solely based on seasonal factors. In Brazil, demand continues to decline due to seasonality.
Cash Flow Generation and Debt Reduction
Aperam reports that the generation of free cash flow and the debt reduction process continued in the fourth quarter. Net debt is expected to be slightly lower than in the third quarter, primarily driven by working capital optimization. The group is on track to reduce its net debt by more than 200 million euros from the end of the first quarter to the end of the fourth quarter of 2025. The Alloys division was affected by seasonality as well as repair and maintenance operations of a key asset, which is now back in service, while the Oil and Gas segment remains weak, according to the company.
Pending European Commission Trade Defense Measures
Several trade defense measures proposed by the European Commission are yet to be finalized and adopted, the statement specifies. These measures aim to protect the European steel market and support local producers. However, Aperam believes there is little likelihood that they will come into effect before July 1, 2026, with positive effects expected in the second half of 2026. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is also expected to gradually take effect over the coming years. Additionally, the group confirms that phase 5 of its Leadership Journey transformation program is fully on track and will achieve gains exceeding the target of 75 million euros in 2025. The financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year 2025 will be published on February 6, 2026.
