ASML Shares Drop 6.27% at Close Despite Strong Annual Performance
Dutch photolithography equipment giant ASML Holding closed sharply lower on Friday, November 21, in Amsterdam. The stock fell 6.27% to 834.00 euros, down from 889.80 euros the previous day, with relatively moderate volumes representing 0.25% of the traded capital. This decline occurred in a stable Parisian market context, with the CAC 40 showing almost no change at +0.02%.
Significant Acceleration of the Corrective Movement
Friday's session marks a significant acceleration of the corrective movement that began several days ago. Over the past week, ASML has now fallen by 5.39%, bringing the stock below the symbolic 850 euros mark. This correction follows a spectacular three-month surge where the stock jumped by 30.68%, driven by optimism surrounding the demand for advanced lithography equipment. Over one year, ASML still maintains an impressive performance of +35.28%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40, which posted 10.89% over the same period. The stock is currently trading below its 50-day moving average of 857.70 euros, signaling a short-term technical weakening. Conversely, the 200-day moving average remains strongly bullish at 756.79 euros, confirming the strength of the underlying trend. Technically, the MACD indicator shows a negative signal with a MACD line at -1.71 and a signal line at 0.78, while the MACD histogram at -2.49 indicates a bearish divergence. This setup suggests a waning of the recent bullish momentum. The RSI, at 40, remains in a neutral zone but is gradually approaching the oversold threshold set at 30, which could limit the downside in the short term. The stock is also positioned between its major support at 813.90 euros and resistance at 937.50 euros, allowing for increased volatility within this range. The one-month volatility is established at 6.35%, reflecting the magnitude of recent movements in the stock.
Robust Q3 2025 Results Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The Dutch group had published its third-quarter 2025 results in mid-October, reporting revenue of 7.52 billion euros and a net profit of 2.1 billion euros, while reiterating an annual growth forecast of about 15% for 2025. Analysts remain predominantly positive on the stock, with 21 buy recommendations out of 27 analysts following the stock, according to recent data. Goldman Sachs notably reaffirmed its optimism by projecting a potential doubling of revenue by 2030, driven by demand for EUV equipment for artificial intelligence. However, geopolitical tensions persist, particularly concerning export restrictions to China. CEO Christophe Fouquet had acknowledged during the Q3 release that sales in China are expected to 'significantly decline' in 2026. Today's decline could also be part of a profit-taking movement after the stock's strong performance in the fall. The stock had recently reached a 52-week high of 938.60 euros, close to the current technical resistance. In this context, investors seem to be favoring caution in the short term, despite solid fundamentals and ASML's near-monopolistic position in the EUV lithography equipment market.
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Technically, the bearish crossover between the 50-day moving average and the current price is a warning signal for investors. The growing gap between the 50 and 200-day moving averages, which stands at about 98 points according to the latest data, however, illustrates the strength of the medium-term bullish trend. The upper Bollinger Band at 935.77 euros and the lower at 858.38 euros frame the current price, indicating that the stock is in the lower part of its volatility channel. This setup suggests a technical rebound potential if the 813.90 euros support holds. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator, neutral at 0.00, does not reveal any significant buying or selling pressure on recent volumes, while the negative On Balance Volume at -484,838 indicates ongoing distribution over several sessions. In the short term, investors will closely monitor the support level of 813.90 euros, whose breach could accelerate the correction. Conversely, a rebound from these levels could pave the way for a return to the 870-880 euros zone, corresponding to the 50-day moving average. The stock's low correlation with the CAC 40, evidenced by a negative beta of -0.12, highlights ASML's independent trajectory, driven more by sectoral dynamics and geopolitical movements than by French market trends. In this consolidation context, caution remains advisable in the short term, even if the medium and long-term prospects remain favorable for the global leader in lithography.
