AXA Shares Hit All-Time High During Session, Up 12.5% Over a Month
The French insurer continues its upward trend, reaching a new all-time high during the session. The stock extends a dynamic that began in the spring, within a generally rising CAC 40, although several cyclical stocks are lagging.
New Historical High at €44.54 and RSI in a Tense Zone
AXA's stock rose by 0.68% to €44.47, after reaching an all-time high of €44.54 during the session. This new record surpasses the previous peak of €44.43. The stock thus extends a gain of 12.53% over a month and nearly 10% over three months. The technical setup remains decidedly bullish: the price is above the MM20 (€42.57), MM50 (€41.08), and MM200 (€39.84), with a gap of 11.6% from the latter. The RSI has risen to 72, in the overbought zone, signaling a phase of acceleration that calls for caution regarding the continuation of the movement. Above the current price, the next psychological threshold is at €45, with no previous technical references at this level.
A Rebound Driven by Defensive Stocks in a Mixed CAC 40
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AXA is performing in a CAC 40 that is up by 0.48%, driven by defensive and consumer goods stocks, with Pernod Ricard, Carrefour, and L'Oréal leading the way. Conversely, STMicroelectronics has dropped more than 5% and Schneider Electric nearly 2%, illustrating a shift towards less cycle-exposed stocks. The insurer benefits from this trend but is not among the top performers in the index. The sectoral context remains favorable: life insurance collections in France have increased by 7% year-on-year as of the end of April, with a 33% share in unit-linked products, while non-life premiums show strong growth. The next important event will be the publication of the semi-annual sales figures, traditionally scheduled for the end of July and beginning of August.
we expect underlying earnings of circa. Euro 8.6 billion with underlying EPS growth at the top end of the target range
Risks mentioned
Softening market conditions in large commercial P&C
Natural catastrophe exposure with normalized Nat Cat load of 4.5 points of combined ratio
Interest rate sensitivity with -50bp interest rates shock expected to result in -1pt impact in Solvency II ratio
Opportunities identified
Growth in Life & Savings segment driven by ageing populations and pressure on existing systems
Expansion in direct distribution channel with rising demand for affordable insurance and digital experiences
Deployment of AI across value chain with expected annual recurring benefits of €500-700m (pre-tax) by 2029
Outlook / guidance
Expected EBITDA: 500 millions d'euros
Expected net income: 8 600 millions d'euros
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
