Carmila Shares Drop 1.5% and Fall Below 20-Day Moving Average
The Carrefour-backed retail property company moves against the grain of a stagnant Paris market in early afternoon trading. The stock slips below a closely watched technical threshold after a strong session last week.
Carmila has dropped 1.57% to €16.34 in early afternoon trading, while the SBF 120 is stagnant (-0.02%). Today's decline has pushed the price below the 20-day moving average (€16.41), with which it had been in contact. The stock also remains below its longer averages, with a gap of about 3% below the MM50 (€16.85) and the MM200 (€16.88). The RSI at 50 indicates a market without a clear direction, but the crossing below the MM20 suggests the exhaustion of the rebound that began in early June. Over three months, the stock has shown a decline of 9%, whereas last month's sequence was contained (-1%). The support identified at €15.80 marks the lower boundary of the trading range observed since spring.
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Based on the consensus of analysts surveyed, the stock is trading at approximately 8.8 times current year earnings and 8.4 times next year's earnings, with an expected EPS growth of 4.1% from one year to the next. This multiple places the real estate company in the lower range of the listed real estate sector. As a reminder, at the end of May, Jefferies had upgraded the stock to 'buy', and the session on June 10th saw the stock among the highest risers in the SBF 120. Today, the early month's bullish trend has lost ground, bringing the price back in contact with its MM20. Defending the €15.80 zone remains the closest technical marker to gauge the continuation of the movement.
Carmila is confidently reiterating its objectives for 2026
Risks mentioned
No new supply and increasing scarcity of profitable spaces may limit future expansion opportunities
Interest rate sensitivity despite current full hedging in 2026-2027, potentially impacting cost of capital for future acquisitions
Retail market concentration in Western Europe and exposure to economic downturn affecting footfall and retailer demand
Opportunities identified
Accretive acquisition of Grand Quetigny (Dijon) generating rental uplift and innovation-based revenues leveraging Carmila's asset management expertise
Rising retailer demand and occupancy expansion (96.0%, +70 bps) supporting sustainable rental revenue growth across three countries
Innovation-driven revenues (Specialty leasing, Retail media, Next Tower, Marketing services) from 620 million annual visits
Outlook / guidance
Management commentary: Carmila is confidently reiterating its objectives for 2026 and expects to generate recurring earnings per share of €1.87.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
