Dassault Aviation Shares Drop 8% in a Week, Key Support Threatened
Dassault Aviation's stock is down 2.2% this Thursday at midday, trading around 319.40 euros in a declining Paris market. The drop is part of a difficult week for the aircraft manufacturer, with the stock losing more than 8% in seven sessions. The CAC 40 is trading at 7,778.33 points, down 0.87%.
By dropping 2.2% from the previous day, Dassault Aviation's share price is dangerously approaching the support threshold at 315.60 euros, which could represent a short-term technical floor. The stock is now significantly below its 50-day moving average (332.40 euros) and its 20-day moving average (337.28 euros), indicating a weakening of the upward momentum that had prevailed over the last three months, during which the stock still managed an increase of 17.51%. The RSI is at 45, in a neutral zone but trending downward, confirming the exhaustion of the recent buying trend. The price is also flirting with the lower Bollinger band, positioned at 316.78 euros, signaling that the stock is in a tension zone where a technical rebound remains possible if the support holds, but a break could lead to a more significant correction. The weekly decline of 8.22% contrasts with a still slightly positive annual performance of 1.66%.
Sector-Wide Decline in Parisian Aerospace and Industrial Stocks
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The decline in Dassault Aviation is not an isolated case this Thursday. The Parisian aerospace and industrial sector is experiencing a generalized pullback during the session: Airbus is down 2.45% and Schneider Electric drops 2.33%. The SBF 120 is down 0.92% during the session, illustrating a cautious climate across the board. Upcoming financial calendar events for the aircraft manufacturer could provide visibility for shareholders. The general meeting of shareholders is scheduled for May 13, 2026, followed by the publication of the first-half results on July 22. Until then, the geopolitical context remains a factor of uncertainty for the entire defense and aerospace sector, in a market environment characterized by high volatility, with the VIX at 26.95 points in its last available measurement.
Le Rafale a confirmé son succès en 2025, avec la livraison du 300 ème Rafale et la commande de 26 Rafale par la Marine indienne.
Dassault Aviation présente des résultats 2025 conformes à l’évolution attendue: chiffre d’affaires consolidé IFRS de 7 426 millions d’euros, résultat opérationnel consolidé IFRS de 639 millions d’euros, résultat net consolidé IFRS de 977 millions d’euros et marge nette consolidée IFRS de 13,2%. Trésorerie disponible à 9 415 millions d’euros. Carnet de commandes consolidé à 46 596 millions d’euros et ratio book-to-bill de 1,5x. Dividendes proposés de 4,78 euros par action (payout d’environ 35%). Pour 2026, le chiffre d’affaires est anticipé autour de 8,5 milliards d’euros avec 40 Falcon et 28 Rafale prévus.
Risks mentioned
Incertitudes liées aux contextes militaires, géopolitiques et budgétaires, couplés aux droits de douane et à l’incertitude sur le SCAF.
Pression fiscale dégrade la compétitivité de la Société.
Incertitudes liées au droit de douane américain au 1er semestre 2025 et à l’évolution du Make in India.
Opportunities identified
Progression possible grâce au Make in India et à la coopération avec des partenaires indiens (DRAL, Tata Advanced Systems).
Poursuite du développement et de la modernisation des programmes Rafale/Falcon et du SCAF, ARCHANGE et ALBATROS; potentiel d’accroître les exports.
Partenariats pour une IA souveraine et maîtrisée avec AMIAD, Thales (cortAIx) et Harmattan AI.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: 8,5 milliards d'euros (2026)
Management commentary: La prévision pour 2026 prévoit un chiffre d’affaires en hausse par rapport à 2025, à 8,5 milliards d’euros, soutenu par les livraisons prévues de Rafale et Falcon (40 Falcon et 28 Rafale).
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