Edenred's stock falls by 3.92% to 17.51 euros this Friday, January 23, mid-session, affected by UBS's downgrade from buy to neutral with a target reduced from 42 to 19 euros.
This Friday's downward movement is mainly due to UBS's intervention, which downgraded its recommendation from buy to neutral while drastically reducing its price target from 42 to 19 euros. This revision follows a series of bearish adjustments by several financial institutions in recent days. Barclays lowered its price target to 21 euros from 36 euros on January 21, maintaining a market-weight recommendation. Kepler Cheuvreux also revised its estimates downward, bringing its target from 40 to 28 euros, while maintaining a buy rating. These successive revisions reflect ongoing concerns about the group's prospects, particularly related to regulatory uncertainties in Brazil and Italy. Brazil accounts for 9.5% of Edenred's global operational revenue in 2024, while Italy is expected to have a negative impact of 60 million euros in EBITDA in the second half of 2025. The Edenred stock now shows a decline of 44.41% over one year and 32.82% over three months, reflecting investor mistrust.
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From a technical standpoint, Edenred's stock is still in a challenging configuration. The RSI stands at 45, returning to neutral territory after having approached the oversold zone at 29 at the beginning of the week, which allowed for a technical rebound of more than 10% on Wednesday. However, this resurgence of strength did not hold up against selling pressures on Thursday and Friday. The current price of 17.51 euros remains below the 50-day moving average, set at 18.58 euros, and significantly below the 200-day moving average at 23.54 euros, confirming a structural bearish trend. The key support at 17.20 euros, tested this week, constitutes a major technical floor to watch closely. On the upside, the immediate resistance is at 19.05 euros, about 9% above the current price. Crossing this level would require a significant bullish catalyst and a more substantial trading volume. The MACD, with a line at minus 0.13 and a signal at minus 0.11, remains in negative territory, indicating a lack of sustainable bullish momentum in the short term.
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Context
Period
Period: 3T 2025
Guidance from the release
Edenred confirme la solidité de son modèle économique et réaffirme ses objectifs 2025, visant au moins 10 % de croissance organique de l’EBITDA et un taux de conversion Free-cash-flow/EBITDA supérieur à 70 %.
Croissance organique accélérée au T3 2025 (+8,2 % chiffre d’affaires opérationnel) portée par toutes les lignes de métier, forte dynamique en Amérique latine et amélioration en Europe; Mobilité en croissance à deux chiffres; Solutions complémentaires en repli. Effets de change négatifs et impact réglementaire en Italie (plafonnement commissions) anticipés.
Risks mentioned
Impact négatif attendu de 60 millions d’euros d’EBITDA lié au plafonnement des commissions marchands en Italie
Effets de change défavorables (dépréciation des devises en Amérique latine, notamment réal brésilien et peso mexicain)
Environnement macroéconomique incertain pouvant affecter la consommation et la demande
Opportunities identified
Hausses des valeurs faciales des titres-restaurant dans plusieurs pays (ex. Belgique +25% à partir du 1er janvier 2026) soutenant la croissance organique
Partenariats stratégiques (Visa, Esso, grand distributeur de carburant) renforçant l’offre et l’accès au marché
Déploiement des solutions Beyond Food et Beyond Fuel et conquête du segment PME encore sous-pénétré
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