Elior Group's Stock Rebounds by 2.5%, but Short Sellers Are Piling Up
The stock of the collective catering group is attempting a technical recovery in a well-oriented Parisian market. However, the rebound remains fragile given the accumulated drop since last month's earnings warning, as short positions continue to increase.
A Modest Rebound Leaves the Stock Below Its Three Moving Averages
Elior Group's stock has gained 2.45% to €2.0480 in mid-afternoon trading, following a 0.78% rise in the SBF 120. The movement extends the rebound that began at the end of last week, bringing the weekly performance to +8.1%. However, the stock remains heavily penalized over longer horizons, with a decline of nearly 31% over one month following the May 20 earnings warning.
The price is trading below its 20-day moving average (MM20) of €2.08, a gap of -1.5%, which caps the rebound, and remains far from the 50-day moving average (MM50) of €2.41 (-15%) and the 200-day moving average (MM200) of €2.62 (-21.8%), indicating a still deteriorating underlying trend. The RSI at 38 confirms the absence of a clear reversal signal, in a zone approaching oversold territory without fully entering it.
Short Sellers Intensify Their Bet on the Stock
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Bearish pressure remains tangible on the short position ledger. According to reviewed declarations, seven funds now cumulatively hold 6.11% of the capital sold short, up from 3.21% a month ago (+2.9 points in thirty days). The increase is significant and reflects a clear strengthening of the bearish bet since the earnings warning, indicating that several institutional investors still consider the short-term risk profile to be tight.
This level, high compared to standards observed on the SBF 120, should be monitored without drawing mechanical conclusions about the direction of the next movement. As a reminder, during the publication of the first half of 2025-2026 (May 20, 2026), the group had revised its annual organic growth target to a range of +1% to +2% and its adjusted EBITA margin around 3%, with a leverage target of approximately 3.5x by the end of September. The technical support threshold at €1.86, tested at the beginning of the month, remains the next reference level in case of a relapse.
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Context
Period
Period: 2024-2025
Guidance from the release
Ces résultats confirment la trajectoire que nous avons engagée : redressement solide, croissance maîtrisée et ambition durable.
Retour à la profitabilité et à la distribution de dividendes, amélioration de la marge d'EBITA ajusté portée par la Restauration Collective (notamment US et péninsule ibérique) et optimisation opérationnelle ; poursuite du désendettement.
Risks mentioned
Non-renouvellement volontaire de contrats (impact en Italie mentionné)
Moindre demande de prestations d'intérim en France affectant les Multiservices
Ratio de levier encore élevé malgré désendettement (objectif ~3,0x)
Concentration sur grands contrats (dépendance à des signatures majeures)
Opportunities identified
Acquisition de 70% de Health Food & Beverage Group pour renforcer la position en Asie
Grand contrat avec West Virginia University comme relais de croissance en Amérique du Nord
Renforcement du mix clients et gains commerciaux sélectifs (stades UK, éducation, santé)
Amélioration continue de la rentabilité opérationnelle et plan d'innovation SI
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