Falling nearly 2% at the start of the session this Thursday, the luxury saddler’s stock is part of an extended correction movement that has accelerated since the beginning of the year. The stock recently hit a three-year low in a context of nervous markets, notably marked by geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran. The monthly volatility of 7.70% reflects the magnitude of fluctuations in the stock.
Hermès is trading at €1,637 this Thursday morning, after having closed the previous session at €1,669.5. This decline is part of a significant depreciation: the stock has lost 20.11% over a month, 22.86% over three months, and 32.22% over a year, making the group one of the most markedly declining among the benchmark values of French luxury. The stock recently touched a three-year low at €1,595, a threshold that now coincides with the immediate support level identified at €1,609. For comparison, the nearest resistance is at €2,118, nearly 30% away from the current prices, highlighting the extent of the correction since the highs. Comparable sector values are limiting damage more on this day: LVMH is down by 0.57% and L'Oréal by 0.31%, illustrating the specific pressure on Hermès shares.
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Technically, the RSI of HERMES INTL stands at 33, after having dropped below the 30 threshold that conventionally characterizes an oversold zone. This return above this level constitutes a signal of exiting oversold status, but does not yet indicate a confirmed trend reversal. The moving averages present a more severe picture: the MM50 is at €1,949.47 and the MM200 at €2,109.67, both significantly above the current price. The negative MACD, at -106.62, confirms that the bearish momentum remains structurally in place at this stage. The publication of the first quarter revenue, expected on April 15, followed by the annual general meeting of shareholders on April 17, will be the next milestones likely to provide elements for assessing the operational trajectory of the group.
Le modèle Hermès, fondé sur une distribution exclusive et qualitative, a une nouvelle fois porté ses fruits. Hermès aborde l’année 2026 avec confiance.
Résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d’affaires de 16 002 millions d’euros, croissance à taux constants de 8,9 % et croissance à taux courants de 5,5 %. Résultat opérationnel courant de 6 569 millions d’euros (41,0 % du chiffre d’affaires) et résultat net de 4 524 millions d’euros. Cash flow disponible ajusté de 3 880 millions d’euros; trésorerie nette retraitée à 12 773 millions d’euros. Propositions de dividendes et actions nouvelles pour 2026, avec un accent sur le développement et l’emploi.
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d’affaires 2026 est attendu en progression à taux constants sans chiffre précis communiqué.
Expected EBITDA: Non précisé dans le communiqué.
Expected net income: Non précisé dans le communiqué.
Management commentary: Perspectives positives pour 2026, grâce au modèle d’entreprise intégré et à la fidélité de la clientèle, malgré un contexte économique et géopolitique incertain.
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