MedInCell Stock Plummets 24% Over Three Months, Reaching a Key Support Level
MedInCell shares fell 2.38% this Tuesday midday to €20.48, in a Parisian market that is otherwise on the rise, with the CAC 40 up by 0.59% during the session. The Montpellier-based biotech continues its downward trajectory that began several weeks ago, showing a decline of over 6% in seven days and 24% over three months. The stock is now very close to its technical support threshold.
At €20.48, MedInCell is just cents away from its identified support at €20.34, a level that represents a pivotal point for the stock's dynamics. The lower Bollinger Band, positioned at €20.25, reinforces the proximity of this technical tension zone. Concurrently, the RSI stands at 37, indicating significant selling pressure without yet signaling an extreme oversold state (generally considered below the threshold of 30). The price has significantly diverged from its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, set at €24.43 and €23.15 respectively. This substantial gap highlights the magnitude of the correction suffered in recent months. Despite this pronounced quarterly decline, the year-on-year performance remains largely positive at nearly 49%, reflecting the strength of the stock's prior trajectory. The monthly volatility, measured at nearly 16%, remains contained considering the speculative nature often associated with biotech stocks.
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In the absence of specific news that could explain the day's movement, MedInCell's correction occurs in a market context where the VIX, the implied volatility index, remained at a high tension level of 27.19 as of its last quote on March 13. The stock's beta, measured at 0.27, indicates a historically low sensitivity to general market fluctuations, suggesting that the stock's own dynamics weigh more than the overall environment. The next major milestone for shareholders will be the publication of the annual results for the fiscal year 2025-2026, scheduled for June 16, 2026. This deadline will be followed by the general meeting scheduled for September 10, 2026, and then the communication of the results for the first half of the fiscal year 2026-2027 on December 8. These milestones will provide several opportunities for the market to reassess the fundamentals of the company specialized in long-term drug injection technologies.
We are pleased with the company’s growth and momentum.
Total income €14,1 million; Revenues €11,6 million (+35 %); UZEDY® royalties €4,2 million; Operating result €(6,6) million (improved 13 % year-over-year); Net result €(16 078) thousand; Cash and low-risk financial investments €53,5 million (incl. €49,8 million cash and €3,7 million low-risk investments); Net financial debt €17 629 thousand; NDA for Olanzapine LAI submitted to FDA on December 9, 2025; AbbVie partnership advancing with regulatory package expected in 2026.
Risks mentioned
Foreign exchange risk: weakness of USD vs EUR impacted revenues and generated ~€1 million FX losses
Dependency on partner commercialization (Teva) for UZEDY® royalties and sales forecasts
Regulatory risk: approvals (e.g., Olanzapine LAI) and acceptance for review uncertain
Financial volatility linked to fair value revaluation of EIB BSA warrants (non-cash €6,8 million impact)
Opportunities identified
Olanzapine LAI: NDA submitted and potential launch could be a major growth catalyst
UZEDY®: upward revision of 2025 net sales forecast by Teva (from $160 million to $190-200 million)
AbbVie partnership: first program advancing toward first-in-human trials (regulatory package expected 2026)
Gates Foundation financing: new $3 million envelope to advance mdc-STM malaria program
Expanded geographic approvals (Canada, South Korea) supporting broader commercialization
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Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
