Montpellier-based biotech Medincell gained 3.11% to €27.20 this Tuesday, January 27 at midday, after closing at €26.38 the previous day. The stock has been volatile since the start of the month, fluctuating between sporadic profit-taking and renewed interest driven by prospects related to its pipeline of injectable treatments. The stock has risen 70.21% over the past year, yet it has fallen 24.44% over the last three months, reflecting a mixed stock market journey.
Investment bank Oddo BHF maintained its 'Outperform' recommendation on the stock on January 16, while raising its target from €27 to €34. This new level suggests a potential appreciation of nearly 25% from the current price. Analysts expect sales of Uzedy to be between €270 and €300 million in 2026, which could allow Medincell to earn between €12 and €13 million in royalties. The file for Olanzapine LAI was submitted to the US health authorities on December 9 after promising phase 3 results. Approval is hoped for by next October. Oddo BHF estimates that this treatment could become a blockbuster, generating one billion dollars per year. Additionally, the company has entered into an agreement with Abbvie, with the first drug candidate set to begin its clinical phase. Conversely, TP Icap Midcap has been more cautious, downgrading its recommendation to 'Hold' with a target set at €32.
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The RSI now stands at 58, indicating normalization after nearly reaching an overbought zone at 78 on January 26 during an 8.56% correction. The stock is currently fluctuating between a lower Bollinger band at €23.42 and an upper limit at €29.24. Breaking through the upper band could pave the way to the resistance threshold at €29.20, a level already tested recently. The price is slightly above its 50-day moving average of €27.04, suggesting a fragile bullish momentum that remains dependent on the evolution of fundamental data. The MACD histogram shows a positive value at 0.17, confirming the persistence of a constructive short-term dynamic despite fluctuations. The next key event for investors will be the publication of the annual results for the fiscal year 2025-2026 scheduled for June 16. This milestone will allow an assessment of Uzedy's commercial ramp-up and the progress of development programs.
We are pleased with the company’s growth and momentum.
Total income €14,1 million; Revenues €11,6 million (+35 %); UZEDY® royalties €4,2 million; Operating result €(6,6) million (improved 13 % year-over-year); Net result €(16 078) thousand; Cash and low-risk financial investments €53,5 million (incl. €49,8 million cash and €3,7 million low-risk investments); Net financial debt €17 629 thousand; NDA for Olanzapine LAI submitted to FDA on December 9, 2025; AbbVie partnership advancing with regulatory package expected in 2026.
Risks mentioned
Foreign exchange risk: weakness of USD vs EUR impacted revenues and generated ~€1 million FX losses
Dependency on partner commercialization (Teva) for UZEDY® royalties and sales forecasts
Regulatory risk: approvals (e.g., Olanzapine LAI) and acceptance for review uncertain
Financial volatility linked to fair value revaluation of EIB BSA warrants (non-cash €6,8 million impact)
Opportunities identified
Olanzapine LAI: NDA submitted and potential launch could be a major growth catalyst
UZEDY®: upward revision of 2025 net sales forecast by Teva (from $160 million to $190-200 million)
AbbVie partnership: first program advancing toward first-in-human trials (regulatory package expected 2026)
Gates Foundation financing: new $3 million envelope to advance mdc-STM malaria program
Expanded geographic approvals (Canada, South Korea) supporting broader commercialization
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