Pluxee Shares Drop 2.6% at Close After Lowering 2026 Targets
This Monday, November 17, Pluxee announced a downward revision of its financial targets for the fiscal year 2026, following the issuance of a decree implementing changes to the Worker's Food Program (PAT) in Brazil. The Brazilian government's measures include setting a cap on merchant commission rates, reducing reimbursement periods, and introducing meal voucher interoperability among issuers. The company now expects total revenue to remain stable in 2026, as opposed to previously announced high single-digit organic growth.
Market Reaction and Stock Performance
Pluxee's stock closed the Monday session down 2.6% at 13.50 euros, compared to 13.86 euros the previous day. This decline is part of a generally downward trend in the Paris market, with the CAC 40 losing 0.63% to 8,119.02 points. Trading volumes remained limited, with only 0.16% of the capital traded, indicating modest liquidity in the stock. Less than 48 hours after the regulatory measure was published, the stock plummeted more than 12% over the week, showing a weekly performance of -12.96%. Over three months, the decline reaches 25.82%, and over one year, the slide is set at 34.08%, in a context where the CAC 40 recorded an increase of 11.68% over the same period. The stock is now significantly below its 50-day moving average, located at 15.48 euros, and even further from its 200-day average at 18.54 euros, confirming a marked deterioration in the trend.
Financial Impact and Strategic Adjustments
Faced with significant uncertainties regarding the scope, operational feasibility, and timing of the announced measures, the group has decided to rely on the most unfavorable assumptions, assuming full implementation of the reform according to the announced schedule. Pluxee now anticipates a slight organic expansion of its recurring EBITDA margin, whereas it previously targeted an organic increase of 100 basis points. This marks the second downward revision since October for the organic revenue growth target. The reform aims to reduce intermediation costs and strengthen competition among major players, with Pluxee generating 29% of its revenue in Brazil. Beyond fiscal year 2026, the announced measures are expected to continue impacting the group's financial aggregates during the first half of fiscal 2027, before returning to a sustainable and profitable growth trajectory starting from the second half of 2027. Deutsche Bank has downgraded its recommendation from buy to hold, reducing its price target from 33 to 23 euros, while analysts at Citi expect an impact of 45 to 50 million euros on Pluxee's EBITDA in 2026.
Technical Analysis and Market Volatility
From a technical standpoint, the stock shows an RSI at 25, well below the oversold threshold of 30, which may indicate intense selling pressure but also a potential short-term exhaustion of the downward movement. However, the momentum remains decidedly negative, as illustrated by the MACD histogram at -0.33, far below the signal line at 0.05, indicating a lack of bullish momentum. The price has broken below its support level identified at 13.86 euros, now turned into immediate resistance, while the major resistance stands at 17.25 euros. The one-month volatility is at 14.47%, reflecting the instability of the stock in the context of regulatory uncertainty in Brazil. The Average True Range (ATR) at 0.39 confirms the amplitude of daily movements. The persistent weakness of the stock is also measured by the growing distance from its moving averages: more than 13% below the MM50 and nearly 27% under the MM200. These significant gaps indicate a structural bearish trend that will require a major catalyst to reverse.
