Rémy Cointreau Bounces Back 3.59% in Session Following Kepler Recommendation
Shares of cognac producer Rémy Cointreau gained 3.59% this Tuesday, November 11, during the session, reaching 44.40 euros after opening at 42.86 euros. This increase occurred in a Parisian market itself up by 1.25%, with the CAC 40 at 8,156.23 points. Trading remained moderate with 0.11% of the capital exchanged, reflecting investors' caution despite the bullish movement.
Technical Analysis of the Day's Rebound
Technically, today's rebound is part of a still fragile chart configuration. The stock is trading well below its reference moving averages, at 46.86 euros for the MM50 and 48.49 euros for the MM200, indicating an underlying trend that remains bearish. The RSI is at 24, a level of extreme overselling that may signal a short-term technical rebound, especially since the Stochastic signal indicates a 'buy'. The price is currently testing its major support at 42.20 euros, while the psychological resistance of 50.50 euros remains out of immediate reach. With a negative MACD at -1.17 and a histogram at -0.52, the overall dynamics of the stock remain under pressure. Volatility remains high at 13.15% over one month, reflecting uncertainties weighing on the spirits sector. Over the past week, the stock has shown a gain of 3.93%, but longer-term performance remains significantly negative: -17.32% over three months and -19.93% over one year, compared to an 11.14% rise in the CAC 40 over the same period. This gap illustrates the structural difficulties of the group facing a slowdown in demand in its key markets, particularly in China and the United States, despite a moderate beta of 0.37 indicating a relative decorrelation with the Paris index.
Reasons Behind Today's Movement
Today's movement can be partly explained by Kepler Cheuvreux's upgrade in recommendation, which raised its advice to 'buy' and its price target to 61.90 euros on November 6. This change in tone comes after difficult months for the group, faced with persistent macroeconomic visibility issues and geopolitical uncertainties related to tariff policies in China and the United States. The market seems to react positively to this new interpretation, perhaps seeing it as a sign of a turnaround after several quarters of brutal corrections. Rémy Cointreau posted a consolidated turnover of 984.6 million euros in 2024-25, down 18% organically, according to annual results published in early June. For the year 2025-26, the group anticipates a return to organic revenue growth, mainly driven by a strong technical rebound in sales in the United States from the first quarter. However, the group has withdrawn its 2029-30 targets due to the absence, to date, of a recovery in the United States based on an improvement in underlying trends, demonstrating increased caution from management in an environment that remains uncertain.
Capital Movements and Future Outlook
In terms of capital movements, five net short positions represent about 0.81% of the capital, indicating that some investors remain cautious about the short-term evolution of the stock. The group estimates that a potential increase in customs tariffs could have a maximum gross impact of 100 million euros on current operating income in 2025-26, with 60 million in China and 40 million in the United States, offset up to 35% by the implementation of action plans. Investors are now watching the group's ability to navigate this complex environment, marked by trade tensions and a slowing global consumption of premium spirits. While today's technical rebound offers a welcome respite for shareholders, it comes after a significant erosion of the stock's valuation over the past year. The next publication of half-yearly results, expected on November 27, will be closely watched to assess the reality of this announced rebound in the United States and the effectiveness of mitigation measures against tariffs.
