Rémy Cointreau Stock: 3.89% Rebound at Mid-Session
The stock of the spirits group is up 3.89% this Wednesday morning, at 43.84 euros, following the luxury sector's earnings releases. This movement comes after several challenging sessions which saw the share price drop nearly 6% over a week.
Current Session Overview
The spirits group is showing a rebound of 3.89% this Wednesday morning, at 43.84 euros, after having reached its technical support threshold at 42.20 euros the day before. However, this increase is part of a negative medium-term dynamic, with a cumulative decline of 17.9% over three months and nearly 28% over a year, while the CAC 40 has gained 6.72% over the same period. Trading volumes remain contained, representing 0.1% of the capital, indicating moderate activity despite the day's increase. The stock benefits particularly from the momentum of the Paris market, which is up 2.44% at midday. The session follows the release of LVMH's quarterly results, whose Wines and Spirits division reported organic growth of 1% in the third quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations who had anticipated a decline of 3%. This unexpected performance benefits the entire sector, with Pernod Ricard also recording significant progress in the morning. However, the LVMH statement notes that trends in cognac remain similar to 2024, affected by trade tensions in the American and Chinese markets, two key areas for French spirits producers.
Technical Analysis
Technically, the stock is now above its support at 42.20 euros, tested the day before, but remains significantly distant from its major resistance at 53.70 euros. The Relative Strength Index, positioned at 27, indicates a marked oversold situation, which could favor a technical rebound in the short term as selling pressure eases. However, the stock is trading below its 50 and 200-day moving averages, at 49.93 euros and 49.40 euros respectively, confirming a persistent downward trend that has lasted for several months. The negative beta coefficient of -0.23 reveals an unusual decorrelation with the CAC 40, suggesting that the stock's movements are more linked to sector-specific factors than to the overall market dynamics. The MACD, negative with a main line at -1.53 and a histogram at -0.20, confirms the lack of structural bullish momentum despite the day's rebound. The Bollinger Bands, currently framing the prices between 43.28 euros and 48.99 euros, show a contraction of recent volatility, measured at 8.47% over a month, a relatively moderate level for the sector.
Market Dynamics and Outlook
The current dynamics remain fragile despite the technical rebound observed this Wednesday. The Chaikin Money Flow, negative at -0.15, indicates that selling flows still dominate recent transactions, while the negative On-Balance Volume confirms an imbalance between buyers and sellers over the period. This configuration suggests that the recovery observed at midday could be more due to a sectoral momentum effect than a structural resurgence of interest in the stock. The contained volatility and negative beta could, however, attract investors seeking exposure to the spirits sector with reduced sensitivity to general market movements. The fundamental context remains marked by uncertainties weighing on the cognac sector, particularly due to trade tensions between China and the United States. The group recently revised downwards the estimated impact of US tariffs on its profitability, from 45 million euros to 30 million euros for the current fiscal year, after signing an agreement setting the tariffs at 15% instead of the initially envisaged 30%. Furthermore, UBS lowered its price target to 53 euros at the beginning of October, while maintaining a neutral recommendation, highlighting the persistent weakness of sales in the United States and China, two strategic markets for the group.
