Renault Shares Bounce Over 2%, Yet Seller Skepticism Persists

A Rebound Bringing the Stock Back to Immediate Contact with its 20-Day Moving Average

Renault shares gain 2.1% at €26.70, bringing its weekly rebound to 5.62%. The stock returns to the proximity of its 20-day Moving Average (MM20), located at €26.80, after having dipped below during previous sessions. The 50-day (€27.94) and 200-day (€31.72) Moving Averages remain significantly higher, with the gap from the latter being nearly 16%, indicating that the medium-term trend remains weak.

The RSI at 43 is in a neutral zone, showing no overbought signal despite the recovery. Over three months, the stock still shows a decline of 11.3%, and 34.1% over a year. The session on July 2, marked by a 3% decline, had brought the price closer to its lowest since 2022, a threshold that this rebound distances without challenging the broader bearish configuration.

Sustained Short-Selling Positioning and a Cautious Consensus on Valuation

According to reviewed statements, five funds accumulate 5.58% of the capital sold short, an increase of 0.32 points over thirty days. This level, above 5%, reflects persistent skepticism from institutional investors positioned against the stock, without recent progress signaling a sharp acceleration. Based on the consensus of surveyed analysts, the stock is priced at about 4 times the earnings expected for the current fiscal year and 3.8 times those of the next fiscal year, with an anticipated EPS growth of 5% from one year to the next.

On the business side, the group confirmed on July 1st its position as number one in France for the first half of the year, despite a growth (+1.94%) that was lower than that of the French automotive market (+8.4%), which mechanically weighs on its shares. The next concrete milestone will be the publication of the semi-annual sales figures, expected at the end of the month.