Safran Stock Plummets 4% and Loses Its Record, Weighed Down by Middle East
The aerospace engine manufacturer undergoes a significant correction during the session after setting historical records last week. The stock is among the largest declines in the CAC 40, in a Parisian market significantly retreating amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
A Drop That Brings the Stock Back to Its 20-Day Moving Average
Safran stock loses 4.09% at €333.00, down from €347.20 the previous day. The stock is among the largest declines in the CAC 40, which is down 2.21% at the same time. The movement occurs in a climate of renewed tensions after US strikes against Iran and Tehran's claimed retaliation against facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, while the VIX jumps more than 19% to 18.55.
The correction brings the price back to its exact 20-day moving average (€332.34), after a rally that had taken it to €360.80 last Friday, a historical record. The RSI at 64 moves out of the tense zone without tipping into an oversold configuration, while the price maintains a gap of more than 9% above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, both close to €305. Today's decline brings the weekly performance into negative territory (-3.48%), but the monthly gain remains above 11%.
Two Analyst Target Adjustments Maintain a Buy Rating on the Stock
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On the analyst front, the last two referenced interventions date from July 6 and are aligned. BofA Securities raised its price target from €330 to €395, confirming its buy opinion. CIC Market Solutions maintained its target at €355, also a buy. At current levels, these two targets offer an implicit potential between 6.6% and 18.6%.
This positioning of the analyst consensus contrasts with today's punishment, which is more about profit-taking than questioning the industrial case. The group has also recently multiplied announcements about its AASM Hammer munitions and its optronic joint venture project with Theon International. The €332 zone, corresponding to the 20-day moving average, will be watched for the continuation of the movement, with the technical support identified at €291.50 as the next bearish marker.
"2025 a été une année remarquable pour nos activités, portées par un trafic passagers record et une dynamique soutenue dans la défense."
Safran publie des résultats annuels 2025 solides: chiffre d'affaires consolidé de 31,189 milliards d'euros (+12,5 % YoY), résultat opérationnel courant consolidé de 4,787 milliards d'euros (+14,4 %), EBITDA de 6,318 milliards d'euros, cash-flow libre de 3,921 milliards d'euros; perspectives 2026: CA attendu en hausse de 12-15 %, COI entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et FCF entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, ambi tions 2028 relevées.
Risks mentioned
Capacités de production de la chaîne d’approvisionnement
Opportunities identified
Croissance soutenue des activités d’après-vente et défense
Livraisons et contenu des services liés au LEAP et à l’aéronautique civile
Dynamique du trafic aérien favorable et extension des commandes dans la défense
Outlook / guidance
Expected revenue: Le chiffre d'affaires 2026 est attendu entre 12 % et 15 % de hausse par rapport à l'année 2025.
Expected EBITDA: EBITDA 2026 attendu entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros.
Management commentary: Pour 2026, Safran prévoit une croissance du chiffre d'affaires entre 12 % et 15 %, un résultat opérationnel courant entre 6,1 et 6,2 milliards d'euros et un flux de trésorerie libre entre 4,4 et 4,6 milliards d'euros, sous réserve de l'exécution des livraisons et du calendrier de paiement des États clients.
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
