Soitec Shares Surge 9.11% at Close After a Disastrous Week

Session Closure and Market Context

Soitec closed the session on November 26 at 26.46 euros, up 9.11% from the previous day when the stock was priced at 24.25 euros. This increase occurred in a generally favorable market context, with the CAC 40 up 0.88% at 8096.43 points. Trading volumes remained moderate, with 1.4% of capital changing hands, indicating a certain caution among participants. Over seven days, the stock still shows a sharp decline of 23.99%, a direct consequence of the half-yearly accounts published on November 19 for the fiscal year 2026. In the first half ending in September 2025, Soitec recorded a net loss of 67 million euros, compared to a profit of 14 million euros a year earlier. On November 20, the shares dropped more than 27% following these results. Over three months, the stock is down 32.94%, and over a year, the collapse reaches 68.78%, while the CAC 40 has gained 11.56% over the same period. The revenue for the third quarter of 2026 is expected to increase organically by 5% to 9% compared to the second quarter of 2026, a guidance lower than the 24% expected by consensus. For the remainder of the fiscal year, market conditions remain challenging, particularly in Mobile Communications where customers continue to adjust their RF-SOI inventories. The technology group recorded a loss of value of 41 million euros on SmartSiC assets and an exceptional foreign exchange loss, with no cash impact, of 19 million euros in the first quarter of 2026. No recent news item can precisely explain the technical rebound this Wednesday, which seems to be a mechanical reaction after an excessive depreciation. The automotive market and the mobile communications market, two pillars of activity, remain in the phase of digesting stocks.

Technical Analysis and Market Reaction

From a technical standpoint, the RSI at 17 signals an extreme oversold situation, generally considered a psychological floor likely to trigger profit-taking by short sellers and opportunistic repurchases. This reading is reinforced by the MACD histogram, in negative territory at -1.50, while the MACD line (-4.20) remains well below the signal line (-2.69), confirming a persistent bearish momentum in the medium term. The stock is now trading well below its reference moving averages: 26.46 euros versus 38.34 euros for the MM50 and 44.72 euros for the MM200, highlighting the severity of the ongoing correction. The stock also remains close to the support at 23.30 euros, tested in recent days, and far from any significant resistance placed at 43.29 euros. Today's rebound is not accompanied by any fundamental announcement. Net short positions represent about 0.70% of the capital, and three insider buying transactions have been recorded, involving 2,717 shares for approximately 64,041 euros. These elements may have reassured some investors in a tactical turnaround logic, but they do not alter the short-term operational outlook.

Underlying Challenges and Analyst Caution

The real concern for Soitec remains demand, with the group exposed to sectors that have experienced several years of overordering and rapid capacity expansion, now with congested supply chains and clients still in the phase of depleting stocks, particularly in Mobile Communications and Automotive & Industry. The Edge & Cloud AI activity remains the only growth driver thanks to the need for substrates for AI applications, but this segment is insufficient to offset the decline in other branches. Analysts remain generally cautious: several downgrades have been recorded in recent days, including one from UBS on November 24. Despite historically low valuations, the recovery trajectory will depend on tangible signals of recovery in end markets, which are not yet perceptible. Thus, Wednesday's rebound remains, at this stage, a volatility episode in a structurally bearish trend, without any fundamental catalyst identifiable to durably reverse the dynamics.