Ubisoft Jumps 6.14% at Close Despite Deutsche Bank's Revision

Deutsche Bank's Downgrade and Sales Disappointments

The day before, Deutsche Bank lowered its price target from 10 to 8 euros while maintaining its 'Hold' recommendation, expecting net bookings of 430 million euros for the second quarter, which is 4% below the consensus. The analyst highlighted the disappointing sales of Assassin's Creed Shadows, with only 4.3 million copies sold since its launch on March 25 according to Alinea Insights, significantly below the 5 million reached by AC Mirage over three months. This revision comes in a challenging context for the French publisher, whose quarterly results are expected on Thursday, November 13. After hitting a low since 2012 at the beginning of November, the stock is attempting a technical recovery without an immediate fundamental catalyst, reflecting more an adjustment by short sellers than a real resurgence of investor confidence. The performance of the day should be viewed in light of the annual trajectory: over one year, Ubisoft has declined by 51.41%, while the CAC 40 has risen by 11.14%. Over three months, the drop reaches 27.68%, and the past week still records a decline of 5.03%. The stock is trading well below its 50-day (8.61 euros) and 200-day (9.88 euros) moving averages, confirming structural bearish pressure. The one-month volatility stands at 14.15, reflecting the ongoing uncertainty about the group's ability to improve its commercial performance. With five net short positions representing 0.87% of the capital, short sellers remain present but not excessively so.

Technical Indicators and Market Reaction

Technically, the 7-point RSI places the stock in an extreme oversold zone, a classic signal of bearish overreaction that may precede a technical rebound. This particularly low level suggests that the stock has been heavily sold and that sellers are beginning to exhaust, partly explaining the recovery observed this Tuesday. However, the MACD remains negative at -0.79, with a signal line at -0.65 and a histogram at -0.14, confirming an underlying bearish trend. The convergence between the two lines indicates that selling pressure is gradually easing. Bollinger Bands now frame the price between 5.96 and 9.33 euros, offering a wide range that reflects recent high volatility. The stock is currently near the lower boundary, a zone where technical rebounds usually occur. The Stochastic indicator shows a buy signal, consistent with the oversold RSI. However, the OBV indicator at -3,207,982 and the CMF at -0.46 reveal a lack of buying conviction in volumes, suggesting that the day's rebound remains fragile and could quickly run out of steam without a positive catalyst.

Operational Challenges and Strategic Moves

The operational context remains tense for Ubisoft, which is set to publish its first-half results on Thursday. The company recently launched Vantage Studios, a new structure dedicated to its flagship franchises, as part of a strategic reorganization aimed at improving profitability. The departure of Marc-Alexis Côté, executive producer of Assassin's Creed, adds further uncertainty about the group's ability to capitalize on its major assets. The transaction with Tencent, intended to inject resources into a dedicated subsidiary, is expected by the end of 2025, but investors remain cautious amid the accumulation of negative signals. In the short term, the stock might attempt to extend its technical rebound towards the resistance at 10.21 euros, but the trajectory remains contingent on the November 13 results and the market's reception of upcoming strategic announcements. The support at 6.08 euros represents a crucial psychological floor: its breach would pave the way for new lows. In this context of high volatility and fundamental uncertainty, investors prefer to wait for clearer signals before making any significant commitments.