Valneva Rebounds 3% in Session Despite 2025 Forecast Revision
Valneva's stock is up 3.02% this Wednesday, November 12, in mid-session, trading at 3.9580 euros. The share of the Franco-Austrian biotech specializing in vaccines is moving in a moderately traded volume, representing 0.14% of the capital. This progress occurs in a supportive stock market environment, with the CAC 40 up 1.1% at 8,245.66 points.
Financial Forecast Downgraded Following FDA Suspension
On Monday, November 10, Valneva announced a downward revision of its financial forecasts for 2025, following the suspension by the US FDA of the license for its Ixchiq vaccine against chikungunya in August. The group now expects sales to be between 155 and 170 million euros, compared to the previously anticipated 170 to 180 million euros. Revenue is projected to be between 165 and 180 million euros, down from the previously targeted 180 to 190 million euros, while research and development investments are adjusted to a range of 80 to 90 million euros. Over a longer horizon, the stock shows a positive trajectory with an increase of 8.74% over three months and a surge of 64.64% over a year, significantly outperforming the flagship Paris index, which has only increased by 11.02% over this period. However, the stock has seen a slight decline of 0.5% over seven days, illustrating some short-term volatility.
Technical Analysis Reveals Mixed Signals
From a technical standpoint, Valneva is currently in a mixed configuration. The stock is trading above its 200-session moving average at 3.41 euros, confirming a fundamentally constructive trend. However, it remains significantly below the 50-day moving average at 4.20 euros, indicating medium-term selling pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a reading of 36, placing the stock near an oversold zone without having crossed it. This indicator suggests that the stock could have a margin for a technical rebound if investor sentiment were to improve. The stochastic oscillator remains in a neutral position, not providing a clear directional signal at the moment. Support and resistance levels are identified at 3.66 euros and 5.09 euros, respectively, framing the likely short-term trading range of the stock.
Investors Watch Clinical Calendar, Eyeing Upcoming Catalysts
Investors are also keeping an eye on the group's clinical calendar, particularly the results of the Phase III trial of the VLA15 vaccine candidate against Lyme disease, developed in partnership with Pfizer, now expected in the first half of 2026. This program is one of the main upcoming catalysts for the biotech. Today's session reflects a resurgence of buyer interest, in a context where the Paris market benefits from a general momentum. However, the low volume traded somewhat limits the significance of this daily increase. With a one-month volatility of 9.22% and a beta of 0.16, Valneva presents a profile that is minimally correlated with overall market fluctuations.
