Valneva Shares Decline by 2.92% Despite a 45% Rally Over the Year
Valneva fell by 2.92% this Wednesday in session, trading at 4.782 euros, in a downward trending Parisian market. This decline follows a particularly strong week for the Nantes-based vaccine specialist, which still shows a 9.63% increase over the past seven days. The publication of the annual results for 2025, scheduled for March 18, is the next major event for the stock.
Today's decline in Valneva occurs in a context of profit-taking after a significant rally. Over three months, the stock has increased by 26.17%, and the performance over one year reaches 44.91%. The price is currently above its 50-day moving average, which is at 4.30 euros, and well beyond the 200-day average at 3.79 euros, confirming a medium and long-term upward trend.
However, the stock is approaching its upper Bollinger band, set at 5.09 euros, a level very close to the resistance identified at 5.08 euros. This threshold constitutes a significant technical zone that the price has not yet managed to break through. The RSI, at 57, remains in neutral territory, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions and leaves room for fluctuation in both directions in the short term.
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The next crucial milestone for Valneva is the publication of its 2025 annual results, scheduled for March 18, which is in a week. This event will be followed by the results of the first quarter of 2026 on May 7, and then the general meeting scheduled for June 1. These milestones will provide increased visibility on the operational and financial trajectory of the laboratory.
The decline this Wednesday also occurs in an unfavorable market environment. The CAC 40 is down 0.58% in session, at 8,010.43 points, while the DAX is down 1.58%. The VIX, a volatility index measured on March 6 at 29.49, signals a high level of tension on international markets. Valneva's negative beta, at -0.31, however, recalls the stock's historically low correlation with major indices, a characteristic typical of mid-sized biotechnological companies.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
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