Valneva Shares Fall Below Its Support at €2.76 with an Oversold RSI
Shares of the Nantes-based vaccine specialist fell by 3.4% this Thursday to €2.726, in a Parisian market significantly trending downward. This drop extends a negative sequence that has seen the share price lose more than a quarter of its value in three months, while the CAC 40 is down 1.25% during the session.
Valneva's Share Price Now Significantly Below Key Moving Averages
Valneva's share price is now significantly below its main moving averages: the 50-day moving average is at €4.18 and the 200-day at €3.88, marking significant gaps from the current price. This pronounced detachment reflects a bearish trend established over several weeks. The RSI, at 27, signals an oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure overwhelmingly dominates the trading without a technical rebound currently in sight. Over the past seven days, the decline reached 4.22%, and the performance over one year stands at -14.81%. The proximity of the technical support identified at €2.76 was a point of focus: the share price has fallen below this level during the session, to €2.726. If this break is confirmed at the close, it could pave the way for a continuation of the movement towards the lower Bollinger band, located at €2.05. The major resistance, positioned at €5.08, appears very distant from current levels.
Thursday's Session Reflects a Tense Stock Market Environment
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Thursday's session occurs in a tense stock market environment. The CAC 40 is down 1.25% during the session, while the SBF 120 loses 1.26%. Healthcare stocks are not spared: Sanofi is down 0.74% and UCB falls by 3.14%, illustrating sectoral pressure on the day. Valneva's negative beta (-0.15) historically indicates a weak correlation with market movements, suggesting that factors specific to the stock weigh more heavily than the overall context on the recent price evolution. The one-month volatility, measured at 23.16%, remains high and reflects the amplitude of oscillations observed in recent weeks. The next key dates for shareholders are set for May 7, 2026, with the publication of the first quarter results, followed by the annual general meeting scheduled for June 1. These milestones will be important for assessing the financial trajectory of the group specialized in developing vaccines against infectious diseases.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
