VALNEVA Stock: Notable Decline Over the Week Despite Strong Annual Performance
Valneva shares experienced a challenging week on the Parisian market, starkly contrasting with the positive momentum seen in major indices. While the underlying trend remains favorable over the year, the stock has not been immune to the sector's recent volatility.
In the last weekly session, Valneva shares closed at €4.35, marking a decline of 9.65% over the week. This shift is in sharp contrast to the gains of the CAC 40 (+1.65%) and the SBF 120 (+1.35%) over the same period. Since January 1st, the stock has still maintained an impressive increase of over 75%, and its performance over the past year remains very solid, also around 75%. The movement this week occurred within a fairly wide trading range, with a weekly high at €5.22 and a low at €3.57, indicating a high level of volatility throughout the sessions. Recently, the stock was generally trading above its short-term averages, but the significant drop in recent days has brought it close to its technical supports. Trading volumes remained robust, reflecting an average capital rotation observed over the last twenty sessions.
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From a technical standpoint, Valneva shares are currently navigating around their 50-day moving average, which stands at €4.32, with the last price slightly higher. The 200-day moving average, lower at €3.27, indicates that the medium-term underlying trend remains positive. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44, on the brink of the neutral zone. The associated Bollinger Bands show an upper bound at €5.11 and a lower bound at €4.08, placing the price in the middle part of the range, but in a rather bearish phase. The monthly volatility, assessed at 16.78, reflects a climate of occasional uncertainty. Finally, the MACD configuration (+0.09) suggests a moderate market dynamic without any obvious excess, in a context where flow indicators remain negative. All these factors depict a technically undecided situation on the stock in the very short term, against the backdrop of a retreat after a long bullish phase.
Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel
The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.
Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.
