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VALNEVA Stock: Significant Decline Over the Week Amid Increased Volatility

Valneva's stock experienced a sharp correction during the last five trading sessions, in a market environment generally trending downward. Benchmark indices such as the CAC 40 and SBF 120 also posted negative changes this week, further intensifying the pressure on the stock. This movement is part of the continued volatility observed in recent weeks in the healthcare sector.


VALNEVA Stock: Significant Decline Over the Week Amid Increased Volatility

Weekly Performance and Market Context

Over the past week, Valneva's stock closed at €3.66, marking a decline of 8.37%. This drop contrasts with the stock's solid performance over the past twelve months, which saw an increase of 41.56%. However, this weekly movement occurred in a climate of stock market correction: the CAC 40 fell by 2.54% and the SBF 120 by 2.60% over the same period. Valneva's decline was accompanied by notable monthly volatility, recorded at 7.89, indicating significant fluctuations in trading. The daily trading volume was robust, especially during the early sessions of the week, when the stock was among the most volatile on the SBF 120 according to mid-session data on Tuesday. On an annual basis, the stock has fluctuated between a low of more than €1.72 and a high of €5.41, confirming a significant range of movement since the beginning of January.

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Valneva has been under increased scrutiny at the start of November following reports compiled in various specialized portals. At the beginning of the week, an analysis published on Monday indicated the possibility of a continuation of the downward trend, while regular monitoring of the stock has maintained this hypothesis for several weeks. On Tuesday, Valneva was noted as the strongest rise in the SBF 120 at mid-session, reflecting significant activity and sustained capital rotation before losing ground again at the end of the week, under the influence of a more unfavorable overall market dynamic. These fluctuations illustrate the stock's sensitivity to developments in the sector and the general mood of investors in the stock market.

Technical Analysis and Stock Behavior

From a technical standpoint, Valneva's stock is currently trading below its main medium-term moving averages, closing below the MM50 (€4.19) and MM20 (€4.06), but remains above the MM200 located at €3.40. The support threshold of €3.66 served as a stabilization zone at the end of the week, while resistance is established at €5.09. The stock is trading near the lower Bollinger band (€3.63), with an upper limit at €4.57. The RSI indicator stands at 22, indicating a pronounced decline in the stock and a predominance of selling pressure during this period. The MACD reading also highlights a bearish movement, oriented negatively. Finally, the stock's beta remains low at 0.21, indicating limited correlation with major indices, despite a general downtrend this week.



Sector Santé · Pharmacie Industrie Pharmaceutique


Assurance vie

Context

Period
  • Period: 9M 2025
Guidance from the release
  • Au troisième trimestre, nous avons continué à nous concentrer sur le renforcement de notre trésorerie, ce qui nous a permis de refinancer notre dette à des conditions financières plus avantageuses.
  • Chiffre d’affaires de 127,0 millions d’euros sur neuf mois (+8,9 %), ventes de 119,4 millions d’euros, trésorerie de 143,5 millions d’euros au 30/09/2025, perte nette 65,2 millions d’euros, EBITDA ajusté (37,7) millions d’euros. Guidance 2025 confirmée : chiffre d’affaires attendu entre 165 et 180 millions d’euros; ventes attendues entre 155 et 170 millions d'euros. Renforcement de la position financière via refinancement et ATMs; Phase 3 VALOR pour le vaccin Lyme en cours selon calendrier.
Risks mentioned
  • Suspension de la licence IXCHIQ ® aux États-Unis par la FDA (impact sur ventes segment voyageurs)
  • Risque de résultats cliniques défavorables pour les candidats (phase 3 VALOR pour Lyme, essais S4V2, VLA1601 incertitudes réglementaires)
  • Exposition aux fluctuations de change (impact négatif mentionné de 1,3 millions d’euros sur ventes, effets de change volontaires)
  • Dépendance à des partenaires de distribution et diminution des produits de tiers (arrêt de distribution de Rabipur/RabAvert et Encepur)
Opportunities identified
  • Résultats positifs potentiels de la Phase 3 VALOR (VLA15) pouvant mener à des demandes d'autorisation en 2026
  • Accord commercial avec CSL Seqirus en Allemagne pour stimuler la commercialisation des vaccins
  • Croissance des ventes d'IXCHIQ ® sur les marchés hors États-Unis et dans les PRFI (livraisons de substance active)
  • Potentiel du candidat S4V2 contre la shigellose (marché estimé > 500 millions de dollars/an)
  • Données positives de Phase 1 pour VLA1601 (Zika) et forte persistance d'anticorps pour IXCHIQ ® (95 % à 4 ans) comme avantage concurrentiel

The information presented in this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation, an incentive to buy or sell a financial asset, or investment advice. Readers are invited to conduct their own research before making any decision.

Investments in the stock market involve risks, including the risk of capital loss. Past performance of an asset or market is no guarantee of future results. Any investment decision should be made taking into account your personal financial situation, objectives and risk tolerance.

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