Vivendi's Stock Rises 3.3% at Close Ahead of Supreme Court Decision
Vivendi's stock increased by 3.28% this Thursday, November 27, at the Paris Stock Exchange, closing at 2.517 euros compared to 2.44 euros the previous day. This rebound occurs on the eve of a crucial Supreme Court decision regarding the de facto control of the group by Vincent Bolloré, expected on November 28.
Judicial Context and Market Reaction
The session took place in a particularly tense judicial context, with the Supreme Court set to deliver its decision on Friday regarding the notion of de facto control of Vivendi by the Bolloré Group. The stock traded 0.23% of its capital during the session, relatively modest volumes compared to 1% of the capital traded during the fall on November 19. Over a week, the stock has shown a progression of 0.68%, but remains sharply down by 19.51% over three months, following the uncertainties related to the split and legal dispute. Over one year, the performance remains positive at 28.61%, significantly outperforming the CAC 40 which has progressed by 12.58% over the same period. The expected verdict this Friday could save Vincent Bolloré a bill estimated between 6 and 9 billion euros. Advocate General Irène Luc has considered that the appellate court violated the terms of the Commercial Code and recommends overturning the April ruling, which would be favorable to the Bolloré company. In July, the AMF had decided that Bolloré and Vincent Bolloré were required to file a public withdrawal offer for Vivendi shares within six months. Thursday's rebound could reflect an adjustment after the sharp drop on November 19, when the stock plunged 13.64% to 2.499 euros after falling more than 20% at the start of the session.
Technical Analysis Insights
From a technical analysis perspective, the RSI is at an extremely low level of 11, signaling a major oversold situation which partly explains the rebound this Thursday. This indicator, which measures the relative strength of a stock, is well below the threshold of 30 generally considered as an oversold zone. The current price is significantly below the 50-day moving average at 2.95 euros and under the 200-day moving average at 2.92 euros, confirming the medium-term bearish trend. The immediate support threshold is at 2.44 euros, a level tested the day before, while the resistance is positioned at 3.17 euros. The MACD, another trend indicator, remains in negative territory with a line at -0.14 below its signal line at -0.09, and a histogram at -0.06. This configuration confirms the underlying bearish context, even though the technical rebound of the day could initiate a temporary consolidation. The one-month volatility stands at 15.48%, a high level reflecting the instability related to judicial events. The stock fluctuates between the Bollinger bands located at 3.31 euros for the upper bound and 2.38 euros for the lower bound.
Operational Performance
On the operational front, Vivendi reported a 2% decrease in revenue in the third quarter at 68 million euros, but over the first nine months of the year, it amounted to 213 million euros, up by 5.2% at constant exchange rates and perimeter. AlphaValue downgraded its advice on Vivendi's stock on November 24, moving from 'buy' to 'reduce', with an unchanged six-month price target of 2.75 euros. The group completed its split in December 2024, now focusing on its portfolio of stakes in listed companies such as Universal Music Group and TIM, while Gameloft represents the only operational asset generating recurring revenues. Today, Vivendi is valued at approximately 2.5 billion euros, down from nearly 9 billion euros before the split, a valuation that remains highly dependent on the outcome of the legal dispute. The decision this Friday, November 28, will be a major turning point for the stock and could determine its trajectory in the short to medium term.
