Global Trade War: France's Logistical Comeback

The end of just-in-time and the major return of inventory management

For decades, global logistics relied on just-in-time production: low-cost manufacturing in Asia and on-demand delivery without holding inventory. However, a series of crises—pandemic, war in Ukraine, inflation, and customs surcharges—have cracked this model. « We are witnessing the end of hyper-globalization: supply chains are fragmenting, and companies are looking to produce and store closer to consumers, » explains Laurence Bouard, Head of Research France at Cushman & Wakefield.

This precautionary approach, known as « just in case, » is transforming industrial geography. E-commerce, healthcare, and retail sectors are now seeking to secure their supply chains through proximity and redundancy. As a result, the demand for modern and interconnected warehouses is soaring across Europe, with France taking the lead in capturing these new flows.

The country currently has a total stock of 89 million square meters of warehouses, spread across four major international hubs—Le Havre, Marseille, Dunkirk, and Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle—connected to the main European logistics corridors. All this comes with an average rent of €84 per square meter per year, compared to €101 on the continent. This is a decisive advantage, especially since the logistics vacancy rate (5%) indicates a balanced market capable of quickly accommodating new investments.

Europe Becomes the Plan B for Asian Giants

Major Chinese exporters, weakened by American trade barriers, are shifting their focus toward Europe. A key example of this strategy is SHEIN—currently in the spotlight for its new location at BHV Marais in Paris—demonstrating the efforts of Asian companies to bypass the United States and establish a presence on the Old Continent. By choosing France as a strategic entry point, these players see a dual benefit: direct access to European consumers and a stable logistical base, away from transatlantic tensions.

This shift in trade flows is accompanied by a realignment of investment capital. « In the investment market, France is once again attracting Asian funds that are seeking defensive and resilient zones, » notes Romain Nicolle, Head of Logistics CMG at Cushman & Wakefield. As a result, logistics real estate is becoming a safe haven asset, bolstered by rising rental demand and the scarcity of land in industrial areas.

However, for France to turn this position into a lasting advantage, several obstacles must be addressed:
- Strengthening intermodality (rail, river, road) to reduce dependency on road transport;
- Modernizing customs procedures and streamlining cross-border controls;
- Developing bonded zones and shared platforms for exporting SMEs;
- Accelerating the digital transformation of logistics, notably through blockchain and traceability solutions.

A Strategic Asset for the French Economy

This logistical repositioning is more than just a temporary trend. It signifies the revival of a key industrial link that has long been overlooked. The return of warehousing in Europe is creating substantial opportunities for investors, communities, and developers. Specialized real estate firms, logistics REITs, and infrastructure funds are increasing their acquisitions, betting on rising rents and the stability of industrial leases.

In the context of geopolitical turmoil, this new geography of the supply chain could become a structural asset. As global exchanges become more fragmented, France is regaining its role as a balance point: a European hub at the center of a fractured world.