Inflation: Prices Rise 2.2% in April Driven by Energy

Energy-Driven Price Surge Reaches 14.2%

According to the provisional estimate by Insee, consumer prices increased by 2.2% year-on-year in April, after 1.7% in March and 0.9% in February. The acceleration is almost exclusively due to energy, with prices surging by 14.2% year-on-year, compared to +7.4% the previous month. The Institute explicitly cites the rise in diesel, gasoline, and liquid fuel prices as the main drivers of this increase.

The harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), used for European comparisons, rose by 2.5% year-on-year. Insee's March economic report had forecasted an inflation rate of 1.8% in April: the 0.4-point difference illustrates the rapid transmission of the oil shock to retail prices. For household purchasing power, this acceleration occurs without any new tax relief announced at this stage.

Brent Crude Reaches Highest Level Since 2022 Amid Hormuz Blockade

Brent reached $126.41 on Thursday morning for June contracts before sliding back to $124.64, its highest level since March 2022. The US WTI was at $109.43, an increase of 2.38%. The price per barrel has doubled compared to its level before the US and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of tension. The White House is reportedly considering maintaining the blockade for several months if necessary, with Donald Trump having stated that it is « a bit more effective than bombings. » The market is also affected by the saturation of storage capacities in the Gulf and the limitation of Iranian exports.

The risk mentioned by analysts is no longer limited to a temporary supply disruption: it concerns a more structural shock if some wells were permanently shut down and then difficult to bring back online. This dynamic extends the trend already observed last month, when Brent exceeded $114 and Europe calculated an energy import cost overrun of 27 billion euros accumulated over sixty days. On the diplomatic front, Vladimir Putin has warned Donald Trump against the consequences of another military action against Iran, according to the Kremlin, asserting that extending the ceasefire might give negotiations a chance.

French economy already stalled before full impact of the shock

French GDP remained stable in the first quarter of 2026, according to the initial estimate by Insee, whereas recent forecasts had anticipated growth between 0.2% and 0.3%. This stagnation can be attributed to sluggish domestic demand and a negative contribution from foreign trade. Construction fell by 1.5%, particularly in public works, while exports dropped following strong aerospace deliveries at the end of 2025.

The effects of the Middle East conflict are expected to weigh more heavily starting from the second quarter. Insee notes that business sentiment has significantly darkened in April, and consumer confidence recorded its largest decline since March 2022. The combination of zero growth, inflation surpassing expectations, and an unresolved energy shock is altering the macroeconomic framework in which French businesses and households make their decisions.