Brent Crude Reaches $126, Highest Since March 2022

Brent Crude at Highest Since 2022 amid Hormuz Blockade

June contracts for Brent reached $126.31 on Thursday morning, before falling back to $121 by late morning. At the same time, US WTI was trading at over $110, up 2.5%. Brent is thus returning to its highest level since March 2022, a period marked by the energy shock following the invasion of Ukraine.

The doubling of the barrel price in two months reflects the ongoing blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and the maritime flows associated with Iranian oil exports. According to reports, the White House is considering maintaining the blockade for several months, with Donald Trump stating that it is « a bit more effective than bombing. » This trajectory extends the already observed trend when Brent exceeded $114 and Europe estimated the additional cost of fossil energy imports at over 27 billion euros over sixty days.

From Temporary Shock to Structural Risk on Global Supply

Beyond the blockade, the oil market is experiencing the saturation of storage capacities in the Gulf and the limitation of Iranian exports. The issue is no longer just a temporary supply disruption; it concerns the possibility of a structural shock if certain wells were permanently shut down and then difficult to bring back into service.

The cited analysts believe that the market may not have fully factored in the consequences of a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. On the diplomatic front, Vladimir Putin has warned Donald Trump about the consequences of any further U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran. According to the Kremlin, the Russian president believes that extending the ceasefire could give negotiations a chance. However, a military escalation or tightening of the blockade would heighten tensions on the global supply.

In France, Inflation Accelerates as Growth Stalls

The effects of the oil shock are starting to show in French figures. According to the provisional estimate by Insee published on April 30, consumer prices increased by 2.2% year-on-year in April, after 1.7% in March and 0.9% in February. The acceleration is mainly due to energy, with prices rising 14.2% year-on-year compared to +7.4% in March, with Insee citing diesel, gasoline, and liquid fuels. The harmonized index (HICP) would reach +2.5% year-on-year in April, which is 0.4 percentage points above the 1.8% anticipated in the March economic outlook.

This acceleration occurs in an already weakened economy. The French GDP remained stable in the first quarter of 2026, while forecasts expected an increase of 0.2% to 0.3%. Construction fell by 1.5%, notably in public works, and exports decreased following strong aircraft deliveries at the end of 2025.

The full effects of the conflict are expected to weigh more heavily from the second quarter onwards. Insee is already noting a marked deterioration in business climate in April and the largest drop in consumer confidence since March 2022.