Iran: House of Representatives Votes on Troop Withdrawal Resolution, Four Republicans Break with Trump

A Symbolic Vote Revealing the Fragility of Republican Support

The resolution adopted by the House of Representatives calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces engaged against Iran. Its legal impact remains limited since the White House holds veto power, but its political impact is significant: four Republican representatives have joined the text, signaling that the hardline stance advocated by Donald Trump no longer enjoys consensus within his own party.

This split arises as the U.S. President stated on Wednesday that an agreement with Tehran might be reached as soon as this weekend, while also admitting a risk of failure. This sequence puts the executive in a delicate position: displaying diplomatic openness to defuse internal dissent without giving the impression of backing down against Iran.

This political equation affects Washington’s room for maneuver in the coming weeks and the clarity of U.S. budgetary and military decisions, two key parameters affecting expectations on the dollar and long-term rates.

A Diplomatic Deadlock Amid Military Escalation

Donald Trump's optimism is directly contradicted by Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi states that no tangible progress has been made and conditions the real resumption of negotiations on several requirements, including the end of the war in Lebanon and a reduction in regional tensions.

On the ground, the ceasefire that came into effect on April 8 is crumbling. Iranian drones have struck Kuwait Airport, resulting in the death of an Indian national and injuring 63, marking the first deadly attack in the Gulf since the truce. Tehran claims the operation as a self-defense action against sites used by the United States, which Kuwait denies. Furthermore, Iran has threatened Washington and Israel with a “decisive” response in the event of another attack.

The Lebanese issue adds another layer of uncertainty: Israel and Lebanon have reached a conditional ceasefire under U.S. mediation, which includes a halt to Hezbollah's fire and its withdrawal south of the Litani River, with pilot zones under the control of the Lebanese army. The agreement is disputed within the Israeli government itself, with National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir calling it a “grave mistake.” For its part, Hezbollah claimed an attack on Israeli soldiers in northern Israel just hours before the truce was announced. Antonio Guterres has called on all parties for “maximum restraint.”

Oil Market: Brent Holds Steady at Around $97, European Industry Under Pressure

Crude prices remain 50% above their winter levels, with Brent at $97.03 per barrel and WTI at $94.91, according to live data. The market is now factoring in the likelihood of an extended conflict in the Gulf, a strategic region for global energy supply.

This trend continues a movement that began at the end of February and impacts European cost chains. The maintenance of Brent at a high level, combined with the eurozone's manufacturing PMI at 51.6 in May, sets the stage for a lasting supply shock for European industry.

The context of European inflation remains a worsening factor: the eurozone HICP rose to 3.2% year-on-year in May 2026, according to Eurostat, marking a high since 2023 that complicates the European Central Bank's trajectory. An extension of the risk premium on oil would mechanically drive the energy component of imported inflation, contrary to expectations of monetary easing.