Oil: 2026 Could Defy Consensus
Expectations for 2026 appear to be aligned: most analysts anticipate a barrel priced between $30 and $50. However, the supply-demand equation suggests a more complex scenario. With constrained production, underestimated demand, and the risk of a sudden revision, oil could disrupt an already fragile monetary context.
A Rigid and Constrained Oil Supply
One of the peculiarities of the oil market is the rigidity of its supply. Exporting countries lack sufficient margins to significantly increase their production, even when prices rise. This constraint is particularly evident in the United States, where the shale oil sector, once a driving force behind global supply growth, is undergoing a deep slowdown. The sector's growth has plummeted by about 90% in two years; in a low-price environment, new drilling is no longer profitable. By 2026, US production could even show stagnation or a decline on a monthly basis.
Analyst Expectations Regularly Underestimate Demand
On the demand side, the consensus largely depends on projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which anticipates a persistently weak demand. However, a key statistic that is often overlooked changes this perspective: the IEA has consistently underestimated actual demand for the past eighteen years. Therefore, a new upward revision would not be surprising. This structural phenomenon makes it plausible for a scenario where the price per barrel exceeds current expectations, contradicting a market too confident in a downward trend.
A Limited Oil Shock on Inflation, but Potentially Impactful for Markets
Even if oil prices rise, the impact on inflation would remain limited as long as prices do not exceed $80 to $90. Below this threshold, the major central banks are unlikely to change their monetary course. The Fed, already dealing with delays in the release of labor market and inflation indicators due to the government shutdown, is preparing to lower its benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points. The key developments will occur in 2026: the pace of easing will largely depend on the successor to Jerome Powell, whose appointment is expected in the coming weeks.
In a market where valuations, particularly those related to AI technologies, have benefited from prolonged enthusiasm, an unexpected rebound in oil could nevertheless act as a catalyst for a correction. Not because it would threaten the macroeconomic trajectory, but because it would provide a tangible explanation for a market adjustment that has become necessary after several years of concentrated outperformance.
Another structural signal is appearing in the background: the collapse of birth rates in the United States. With 660,800 babies in 2024, the lowest level since 1945, and a further decline of 2.3% between January and October 2025, the demographic issue could become a central macroeconomic concern in the years to come. For now, it remains largely absent from public debate and market forecasts.
This content has been automatically translated using artificial intelligence. While we strive for accuracy, some nuances may differ from the original French version.
