Oil: Brent Crude Plummets by $36 in One Session, a Record Since 1980

March 10, 2026, timeline of a historic session

The day began in a climate of high tension. From the early hours of trading, Brent crude oil skyrocketed, reaching a peak of $119.50 per barrel. This surge was driven by a combination of bullish factors related to the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States, as well as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes. Then, within just a few hours, the trend sharply reversed.

A « reassuring » speech by Donald Trump about the imminent end of the war was all it took for prices to start declining, a drop that accelerated throughout the afternoon. By evening, Brent hit a low of $83.66 per barrel, marking a collapse of nearly $36 from the morning's peak.

This intraday fluctuation is the largest ever recorded in the crude oil market since Bloomberg began compiling these data in the 1980s. No session—not even during the Gulf War in 1990, the 2008 oil crash, or the brief plunge of WTI into negative territory in April 2020—had ever produced such a dramatic price swing in a single trading day.

Geopolitics and Speculation: The Two Drivers of Extreme Volatility

Geopolitical developments were the first catalyst for this exceptional session. Without detailing the exact nature of the ongoing diplomatic or military events, market participants initially anticipated a supply disruption scenario, pushing prices toward $120. This type of reaction reflects the oil market’s structural sensitivity to any threat to physical crude flows.

The second identified driver is speculation. In an already tense market, the massively accumulated long positions during the morning's upward phase generated significant leverage. When sentiment shifted, cascading liquidations disproportionately exacerbated the drop. This phenomenon, well-documented in futures markets, turns a directional movement into a self-perpetuating spiral. The combination of these two factors—geopolitics and speculation—explains the unprecedented magnitude of oscillation observed on March 10, 2026.

Brent Crude Falls Below $100: Fragile Stabilization on March 11

The day after this historic session, the oil market has found a semblance of calm. On March 11, Brent crude held steady around $91 per barrel, significantly below the psychological threshold of $100. WTI followed a similar path, settling at $86.81. It's worth remembering that before the outbreak of hostilities, prices fluctuated around $68-70 for Brent and $65-68 for WTI.

This stabilization reflects a rebalancing between buyers and sellers after the excesses of the previous day. However, the context that triggered the March 10 volatility has not disappeared. Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and speculative positioning in the futures markets remains high. In such a configuration, episodes of extreme volatility can reoccur without warning. Therefore, the $91 level constitutes a temporary equilibrium point, whose strength will depend on the evolution of fundamental factors and market sentiment in upcoming sessions.

Why This Session Is a Historic Benchmark for the Oil Market

The $36 fluctuation recorded on March 10, 2026, surpasses all previous intraday records for Brent crude. To understand the magnitude of this event, it's important to recall that during the oil crash of April 2020, the most dramatic drop for Brent in a single session was about $5 to $10 intraday. On March 10, the movement was three to seven times greater.

Such an event highlights the potential fragility of commodity markets when exogenous shocks meet excessive speculative positioning. It also underscores the importance of liquidity: in a market where trading volumes are concentrated during specific hours, a sudden reversal can cause imbalances of extraordinary magnitude. March 10, 2026, now stands as a benchmark date in contemporary oil history, akin to the oil shocks of the 1970s or the collapse of 2014-2015—not for its lasting impact on prices, but for the volatility of its intraday dynamics.