Oil: Brent Crude Plunges 15% After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

US-Iran Ceasefire: Agreement Terms and Limitations

Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran a few hours ago, temporarily ending more than five weeks of Israeli-American strikes on Iranian territory. Tehran has agreed to this deal, and talks are set to begin the following Friday in Pakistan, appointed as a mediator between the two parties. This diplomatic development marks a turning point after weeks of military escalation that had destabilized the entire global energy market.

Israel stated its support for the ceasefire but immediately clarified that its military operations in Lebanon are not covered by this agreement. This position directly contradicts that of the Pakistani mediators, who included Lebanon within the scope of the truce. This disagreement represents a major divergence in the early hours of the negotiations, raising questions about the strength and durability of the ceasefire.

The continuation of Israeli operations in Lebanon thus keeps an active point of tension in the Middle East. For markets, this uncertainty means a significant geopolitical risk persists in the region, even though the intensity of the direct conflict between the United States and Iran is waning. The clarification of the exact scope of the agreement during the talks in Pakistan will be crucial for future developments.

Brent at $92.99: A Sharp Drop but Not Complete

In the hours following the ceasefire announcement, Brent crude prices plunged by 15%, dropping significantly below the symbolic $100 threshold to settle at $92.99 on the morning of April 8, 2026. This sharp decrease reflects the markets' immediate relief at the prospect of de-escalation and, more importantly, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict had indeed driven prices up by more than 40% in just a few weeks, propelling Brent to levels that operators hadn't seen in years.

Nevertheless, the 15% drop does not bring Brent back to pre-war levels. At the beginning of 2026, before the hostilities began, the barrel fluctuated between $62 and $69. At $92.99, prices remain approximately 35% above this pre-conflict range.

The exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire by Israel, the uncertainty regarding the effective reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the still preliminary nature of talks with Pakistan prevent a return to normalcy in oil markets. As long as these factors remain unresolved, the geopolitical premium will continue to be a key component of the barrel's price.

Strait of Hormuz: The Cornerstone of Global Supply

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime passage through which about one-fifth of the world's traded oil passes. Located between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, it is the most sensitive chokepoint in international energy trade. Its blockage during the conflict was one of the main catalysts for the surge in prices, disrupting supply flows to Asia, Europe, and beyond.

The announced ceasefire should allow for the reopening of this vital corridor. Markets immediately anticipated a loosening of the grip on global supply chains, even though the reopening was not yet formally confirmed.

However, the effective confirmation of this reopening will depend on the tangible progress of the talks scheduled in Pakistan. A return to normal maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would be a strong signal for the entire energy market, likely exerting sustained downward pressure on crude prices. Conversely, any delay or incident could rekindle anxiety and quickly drive prices up again.

For oil markets, uncertainties remain far from anecdotal. The continuation of active conflict in Lebanon, within an already significantly destabilized regional context, maintains a risk of escalation that could justify, in the eyes of operators, the maintenance of a high risk premium on the barrel. As long as the geographical scope of the ceasefire is not clarified and respected by all parties, the gap between the current price of Brent and its pre-war levels is unlikely to fully close.