Audacity as the New Safe Haven for Savers

When the Risk-Free Asset Loses Its Status

For a long time, government bonds have been the foundation of global finance: safe, liquid securities serving as benchmarks for the valuation of all other assets. But this logic is eroding. In his latest commentary, Laurent Chaudeurge from BDL Capital Management points out that the notion of a risk-free asset has gradually lost its meaning, especially in developed countries. In theory, sovereign debt is considered infallible: a government can impose taxes, adjust its revenue, or change legislation to meet its obligations.

In practice, fiscal and budgetary flexibility is diminishing. In France, the arduous review of the 2026 budget highlights this deadlock: neither tax increases nor massive cuts seem politically feasible. As a result, the government no longer has the freedom of action that historically justified its status as a « risk-free » debtor. This shift is accompanied by an unprecedented phenomenon: some large French companies are now borrowing at lower rates than those of sovereign debt. This inversion of financing curves has been observed during extreme crises (such as the eurozone crisis), but this time it is happening without a major systemic shock. The explanation lies in the growing financial credibility of certain globalized private issuers, capable of generating strong and recurring cash flows, unlike structurally deficient states.

Companies Stronger Than Nations

This shift in perception reflects an underlying trend: large, well-managed international companies possess advantages that states no longer have. They can adjust their prices, reduce costs, and diversify their markets on a global scale. Their debt is often stable or decreasing, and they have abundant cash flow.

Conversely, most Western governments are witnessing their public debt rise inexorably due to a combination of demographic aging, the financing of energy and digital transitions, and increased fiscal rearmament. This divergence in trajectory is amplified by the globalization of capital: companies can refinance anywhere, while states remain tied to the increasingly mobile tax base of their population.

Each year, observes Chaudeurge, companies are redistributing more to their shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, while states continuously rely more on their creditors. For savers, this asymmetry challenges the traditional hierarchy between safe and risky assets. By heavily favoring guaranteed investments—such as regulated savings accounts or euro funds—French citizens are financing a state with deteriorating solvency, while neglecting the opportunities offered by productive capital. The paradox is striking: the country has one of the highest savings rates in the world, yet only about 6% of these savings are invested in stocks, compared to nearly 30% in the United States.

Investment: A Risk Now Calculated

Questioning sovereign debt as a cornerstone of « risk-free » investments does not imply that equity markets have become safe. Rather, it encourages a reevaluation of risk over a long-term horizon. Over a ten-year period, large international companies have significantly greater flexibility than states to adapt to economic or geopolitical shocks. According to Chaudeurge, they thus represent a source of return and stability better aligned with the interests of long-term savers.

This perspective is not simply intellectual provocation; it echoes a sentiment shared by many asset managers. The real danger for an investor is no longer the occasional volatility of the markets, but the chronic underexposure to risky assets in a world where the value of public capital is eroding. As the expert puts it, « boldness has become far less risky than inaction."