Gold ounce surpasses $5,100, reaching an unprecedented level amid global turmoil

A Rapid Record Surprises the Markets

Gold prices shattered the symbolic $5,000 per ounce threshold, climbing to $5,109 this Monday, January 26. If this performance holds through the end of January, it would rank among the best in 25 years. Over a rolling year, the increase is about 85%, nearly doubling its value in two years from the $2,000 mark in January 2024.
Analysts, who anticipated reaching this level later in 2026, are now revising their forecasts upward. Bank of America now targets $6,000 by spring. This spectacular surge reflects an unexpected acceleration, driven by cumulative factors that didn't allow time for forecasts to adjust. The ounce, equivalent to 31.1 grams, thus symbolizes a new era for safe-haven assets. Professionals note that this trajectory, from $400 in 2000 to over $5,100 today, raises questions about the stability of fiat currencies. For French investors, attentive to equivalences around €4,200, this movement encourages a closer look at wealth diversification opportunities in a volatile landscape.

Drivers of a Geopolitical and Monetary Rise

The uncertainty fueled by Donald Trump's presidency dominates the explanations. His shifts on Greenland, the threats of tariffs against European allies, and the persistent tensions in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran drive the search for security. Even the apparent calm at the Davos Forum didn't slow the momentum. Adding to this is the de-dollarization of East Asian economies, with massive gold purchases from Asia. Central banks, wary after the seizure of Russian assets, are converting their reserves from dollars and euros to gold, replacing US Treasury bonds.
Mistrust towards heavily indebted countries like France and the United States, plagued by chronic deficits, reinforces this trend. The weakening of the dollar and expectations of lower US rates, linked to a new Fed governor, complete the picture. Dan Coatsworth of AJ Bell notes that investors remain 'reluctant to let go of' gold, 'in case Donald Trump wakes up with a new controversial idea.' Kyle Rodda of Capital.com emphasizes the 'systemic tensions' coupled with an expansionary monetary policy and global remilitarization. Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets points to currency depreciation and public debt as key factors, generating an 'insatiable thirst' for tangible assets.

Outlook and Spillover to Other Precious Metals

There is no apparent reason for an immediate slowdown in these dynamics. Bullish forecasts are multiplying, with optimistic scenarios for 2026 easily exceeding the initial $5,000 mark. Silver is following a similar euphoric trajectory, climbing past $100 an ounce on Friday to reach $109.45 on Monday, driven by industrial demand in solar and electronics, as well as fear of missing out and rumors of shortages.
David Morrison from Trade Nation refers to a 'speculative euphoria' fueled by FOMO. For savvy investors, this correlation between gold and silver highlights the increasing appeal of precious metals as value protectors in the face of instability. However, stock market professionals are cautious, viewing these records more as a warning signal than an invitation for mass buying. Asian purchasing and institutional buying by central banks are maintaining upward pressure. In this context, diversified portfolios are increasingly incorporating these tangible assets to counter monetary erosion. French investors, exposed to euro-dollar fluctuations, are monitoring these developments to adjust their allocation strategies, considering potential upward and downward variations.