Real Estate: Genuine Recovery Beneath a Calm Facade

A Market Stagnant on the Surface

As every year, November puts on appearances. This traditionally calm month doesn't reveal anything spectacular: minor monthly variations, stable volumes, and prices that hardly move. The market seems frozen, stuck between interest rates fluctuating within a narrow range and a credit stagnation persisting since summer. It leaves the impression that the anticipated rebound is still slow to come.

However, this diagnosis changes completely when viewed through a broader lens. Over six months, all segments show a much more positive dynamic than in 2023 and 2024. The long-term trends tell a different story: one of a market that has distanced itself from the sharp declines caused by the 2022-2023 interest rate shock and moved into a phase of upward stabilization. We are no longer in a slump; we are in a gradual recovery.

This structural improvement is also reflected in credit volumes. After two years of drying up, credit grants have stabilized since summer at levels significantly higher than the previous year: up 28% compared to September 2024, and 34% compared to 2023. While this recovery doesn't yet signal a massive return of borrowers, it marks a market reopening that contrasts sharply with the blockages of the post-rate hike period.

Nevertheless, this positive movement is not enough to dispel the sense of heaviness. Interest rates have held steady between 3.30% and 3.35% for six months, with even a slight upward tick in recent weeks, without forming a clear trend. The inertia in credit remains strong, hindering households' ability to plan ahead. Additionally, the particularly unstable regulatory environment obscures the visibility for both buyers and sellers.

Rates Frozen, Rules Changing

One of the most significant hurdles for the current market remains regulatory and tax confusion. November was marked by a series of sometimes contradictory announcements: reform of real estate capital gains, transformation of the wealth tax (IFI), extension of the « super » property deficit, and the creation of a new status for private landlords. These are all signals sent by the government, yet they lack clear articulation, especially in an environment where the budget bill (PLF) was rejected and several amendments could still be altered or vetoed. In such a setting, buyers and sellers prefer to defer their decisions, waiting for a stabilized framework.

The result is a market under a lid: fundamentals are improving, but caution prevails in transactions. Every participant proceeds with restraint, lacking certainty on the direction political decisions will take to set the rules of the game.

In this complex environment, analyzing by major cities offers a more nuanced perspective. The top 10 urban markets confirm an underlying trend: over six months, performances are generally much better than in 2023 or 2024. In 2024, eight out of eleven cities were in negative territory at six months. In 2025, only two remain. Local cycles are recovering, but unevenly.

Some metropolitan areas, like Nice, indicate a clear acceleration, reflective of markets where demand is picking up faster. Other regions, such as Nantes, remain in the red: the correction ongoing since 2022 continues, although some indicators suggest a slowdown in the decline. This diversity illustrates a national market that has stopped declining but has not yet regained a consistent momentum.

Gradual Withdrawals and Remaining Uncertainties

The overall picture reveals a paradoxical situation: the exit from the crisis has begun, but it remains hindered by contradictory signals. The market is no longer in decline, nor fully in recovery. It progresses in stages, depending on macroeconomic information, political decisions, and credit visibility. A solid improvement on the surface, short-circuited in the short term by current uncertainties.